Breakouts, Sleepers and Busts

Breakouts, Sleepers and Busts

By Jeff Paur RealTime Fantasy Sports

Owners love to be the guy that drafted some relative unknown that blossomed into a legitimate fantasy star, which led you to the playoffs. It seems to be a favorite topic for fantasy players – sleepers. And there are always certain players that emerge from obscurity to post big numbers. The key is trying to identify those players, which is never easy.

Kevin Curtis was a great example of a player that we had on our breakout list. We targeted Curtis as a candidate to shine, getting a chance to start. He flashed some good things when given the chance with the Rams and moved into a starting role with the Eagles, giving us hope Curtis could breakthrough. And Curtis didn't disappoint, notching his first 1,000-yard season of his career and performing as a capable No. 2 receiver for fantasy teams.

Curtis is just one example, though. Every season there is a group of players that live up to their potential and carry fantasy teams into the playoffs. As mentioned, the key is identifying those players and knowing where to take them during your draft.

On the flip side, there always are a group of players that don't live up to the hype. Last season, Travis Henry was a big-time bust. But many had this predicted. Some thought moving to the Broncos top rushing attack would be a huge plus for Henry. But he once again had an injury-plagued season and lost out on work to undrafted free agent Selvin Young.

If you did your homework, you knew Henry was a former 1,000-yard rusher, but also played a full season just once in his career. And Henry had less than 400-rushing yards in two of the past three seasons before heading to Denver. Henry had obvious upside moving to the Broncos, but his injury history and lack of production should have sent up some red flags for fantasy owners. Plus, we all know the Broncos can go with unusual options at running back, which was another concern for Henry.

So using a first-round pick on Henry, which you pretty much had to last season to get him, was a big risk for fantasy teams. Because of this, a lot of owners stayed away from Henry and were satisfied to see another owner in their league waste a high pick on him.

The key is to do your homework and figure out the players on the rise or setup for a poor season. Below is a list of a few players we would keep an eye on for the coming season.

BREAKOUTS

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers. Holmes finished with just fewer than 1,000 yards last season, his second in the league. He missed three games, though, and had two great months to end the season. In his last seven games, Holmes had 26 receptions for 516 yards and four touchdowns. He is taking over as the No. 1 receiver in the Steelers offense, moving ahead of Hines Ward. Holmes has a great shot to hit his first 1,000-yard season and score double-digit touchdowns.

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos. Cutler showed steady improvement last season, notching a 3,000-yard season and 21 total touchdowns. He can improve on those numbers, though. This will be his third season in the league and just his second as the full-time starter. And the Broncos got him a few more weapons at receiver (Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert). Plus, Cutler has an emerging star in Brandon Marshall to continue to work with. Cutler has 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown potential for the coming year.

Michael Turner, RB, Falcons. Finally out of San Diego, Turner gets his shot to start. He heads to Atlanta, which isn't an exciting landing spot but still gets him a starting gig for the first time in his career. And the Falcons will run often, giving Turner plenty of work. Turner has a career 5.5 yards per carry average and just 228 carries during his four year career. He has plenty of life left in his legs and should be a mainstay in the Falcons offense for the next several seasons.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts. It took Gonzalez a little time to get going, but he was a big factor in the Colts offense by season's end. He had 16 receptions for 24 yards and three touchdowns during the month of December. He can build on that strong finish, especially with Marvin Harrison's knee a bit of a question. Gonzalez will get plenty of work, regardless of whether he is starting or the No. 3 receiver in the Colts offense.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots. Most thought last season would be the breakout year for Maroney, but he was a bit of a disappointment. Maroney was slowed by a groin injury early in the year and was overlooked many weeks because of the Patriots prolific passing attack. But the Patriots used him a lot more down the stretch. He broke the 100-yard mark in two of his last three regular season games and scored four touchdowns during that stretch. The Patriots will throw a lot once again this season, but they are expected to rely on the run a little more after faltering in the Super Bowl.

Others: Mark Clayton, WR, Ravens; Greg Olsen, TE, Bears; Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers; Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs.

SLEEPERS

Laurent Robinson, WR, Falcons. He kind of flew under the radar his rookie season, mostly because the Falcons were so bad. But Robinson produced when given the chance, getting 437-receiving yards. He got his most playing time in December near the end of the season, catching 14 passes for 201 yards and a touchdown in five games. And Robinson has a good shot to start from day one this season. The Falcons don't have a great offense, but Robinson could surprise in a starting role. He has some upside after a strong rookie season.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Iron man, Brett Favre, finally retired, leaving the keys to the Packers offense with Rodgers. He is a bit of an unknown, but Rodgers has some weapons to work with. The Packers receiving corps is very exciting, which should help the transition at quarterback for the Packers. Rodgers has little experience, but almost led the Packers to a comeback victory against the Cowboys last season. He was 18-of-26 for 201 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers could be up and down, but he'll have some big games in a good offense.

Julius Jones, RB, Seahawks. Kind of hard to consider a former starter and 1,000-yard back a sleeper, but Jones was a bust the last seasons and fell out of favor with fantasy teams. But we like his chances for a bounce-back season with the Seahawks. He could split carries with T.J. Duckett, but Jones proved in past seasons he can still produce while splitting work. And we think Jones has a shot to get the majority of the carries in the Seahawks offense. He is the most talented back and seems a good fit for their offense. Don't be surprised if Jones notches his second 1,000-yard season of his career.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers. Getting Mike Martz to call plays is a good thing for the 49ers quarterbacks. Martz claims he'll focus more on the run this season, but that hasn't been his tendencies as offensive coordinator. So the 49ers starter at quarterback should get plenty of chances to throw. And we think Smith will be the starter. He is the most talented of the 49ers quarterbacks and has impressed Martz in early workouts. Taking a chance on Smith as a No. 2 quarterback late in your draft could payoff for fantasy teams.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions. Smith is a rookie, but he has just Tatum Bell to compete with for the starting job in Detroit. And even if he doesn't start, Smith should get plenty of work in a more run heavy Lions offense. But we think Smith will take over the starting role at some point this season. Bell hasn't been a consistent pro. Smith is an exciting player. He is a big-play back, capable of breaking a long run every time he touches the ball.

Others: Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants; Jacoby Jones, WR, Texans; Tyler Thigpen, QB, Chiefs; Drew Bennett, WR, Rams.

BUSTS

Earnest Graham, RB, Bucs. Graham was a great story last season, coming out of relative nowhere to capture the Bucs starting gig and get nearly 900 yards in 10 starts. Graham is 28, though, and will have Carnell Williams and Warrick Dunn pushing him for playing time. Williams is a question mark because of his knee, but he could be a factor at some point. Graham is a guy that will be taken too early in drafts based on last season. For us, he has a few too many questions to count on him to be a surefire No. 2 fantasy back.

Jon Kitna, QB, Lions. Kitna doesn't have his buddy Mike Martz calling plays this season. This means the Lions should run the ball a lot more this season. The passing game won't be abandoned, especially with Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams on the roster, but Kitna will get fewer chances than the past few seasons. Kitna is no longer a No. 1 fantasy option. We also wouldn't discount Drew Stanton pushing Kitna for playing time.

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals. The Cardinals aren't sold on James being an every-down back anymore. He will platoon more this season. James rushed for 1,000 yards his first two years with the Cardinals, but averaged less than four yards per carry. He also has 13 touchdowns in two seasons with the Cards. His numbers are mediocre for fantasy teams, especially with such high hopes after his days in Indy. James is more of a No. 2 back at this stage – maybe even a No. 3 since his scores are down.

Javon Walker, WR, Raiders. His knee remains a concern. Walker has endured a couple knee surgeries and played a full season just once the last three years. He signed a huge deal with the Raiders during the offseason to take over their No. 1 receiving duties. But the Raiders don't have a very good offense, so don't expect Walker to return to past form with his new team. He moves to a bad offense on a shaky knee.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers. A lot are excited about Davis for the coming year, mostly because of Mike Martz coming aboard to call plays. But Martz hasn't used the tight end much in the past, so seeing Davis breakout this season isn't a lock. He has talent, but has missed eight games in two years because of injury and has just 774-receiving yards in two seasons. Don't overvalue Davis because of his hype out of college. Sure, he is a good talent, but the 49ers need a quarterback to perform for Davis to do well, and the addition of Martz doesn't exactly guarantee a bump in stats for Davis. He'll likely go too early in drafts for what he'll produce for fantasy teams.

Others: Shaun McDonald, WR, Lions; Donald Driver, WR, Packers; Willie Parker, RB, Steelers; Jeff Garcia, QB, Bucs

Boom or Bust?

Boom or Bust?

By Jeff Paur RealTime Fantasy Sports

Every season there seems to be a group of players that are a bit unknown for fantasy teams. We like to call those players the boom or bust players. There always are a decent group of guys that can make or break a fantasy team. If they come through, your team performs. If not, you could be in store for a long season.

For us, it is alright to take a player or two like this. But don't overload your team with players that have high upside but aren't sure things. And if you want to just play it safe, avoid these guys altogether. But remember, sometimes you have to take chances to win in fantasy football.

Below are some of the boom or bust players of '08. These guys all have high ceilings, but also could implode. The pros and cons of each player are listed with them to help you better decide if you want them on your roster. Have fun figuring out if you want to draft them.

Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals. Leinart hasn't exactly lived up to the hype so far. His older, more established teammate (Kurt Warner) has actually outplayed him when given the chance. But the Cardinals are sticking with Leinart as their starter. He is the future of that team. Leinart has tons of upside in this offense, mostly because of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. He just needs to play more consistent football. If all goes well, Leinart can near 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. If not, Leinart could find his way to the bench, watching Warner guide the Cardinals.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills. Evans is the ultimate boom or bust player, mostly from week to week. He'll get you a 150-yard game and two touchdowns a week and go without a catch the following week. Evans had a huge year in '06, but struggled last season. So the potential to be a more consistent, top fantasy player is there with Evans. Consistent play from the quarterback position and the Bills offense could go a long way towards Evans being a more reliable fantasy option.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers. We aren't ready to anoint Williams as a surefire No. 1 fantasy back. If he was, he would have grabbed the starting role from DeShaun Foster the last few seasons. Instead, he split carries with the inconsistent Foster and the Panthers used a draft pick on Jonathan Stewart this season. But Williams certainly has the potential to be a top back. He has great speed and can move a pile with his strength. Williams seems like a candidate to be a make or break back for fantasy teams. He won't last too long in drafts, so you will need a high- to mid-round pick to get him. If Williams falters in a starting role, teams that wasted a third or fourth round pick on him will be very unhappy.

Vince Young, QB, Titans. If Young can improve his passing just a little, he can be a fantasy force. But that is a big if, considering the Titans didn't do a whole lot to improve their receiving corps and Young has less than 2,600-passing yards in each of his first two seasons. But the upside is that Young completed 62 percent of his passes last season and in two seasons, Young has nearly 1,000-rushing yards and 10-rushing touchdowns. Young is an exciting, intriguing talent for fantasy teams, but isn't a sure thing.

Todd Heap, TE, Ravens. Heap had two productive seasons before going through another injury-plagued season last year. He also played in just six games in '04. Heap did play two full seasons the following two years, averaging 74 receptions for 810 yards and seven touchdowns. As you can gather, Heap is a top option when playing. But missing over half the games in two of the last four years makes Heap a big question mark.

Travis Henry, RB, Broncos. Henry was a bust last season, but heads into this year with similar expectations. He is the starter on a team that churns out 1,000-yard backs like no other. And don't overlook that Henry broke the 100-yard mark in three of the first four games last season before spraining his knee and doing little the rest of the year. Henry has three 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, so he certainly has the potential for big things in the Broncos offense if the pieces fall into place.

Donte' Stallworth, WR, Browns. Most thought Stallworth would have a breakout season last year after signing a big contract with the Patriots. But he was hit or miss and eventually lost out on a lot of playing time to Jabar Gaffney. He was released and signed with the Browns. The Browns have a few less weapons to compete with at receiver than the Patriots. And Stallworth should move right into a starting role, opposite Braylon Edwards. Stallworth has never had a 1,000-yard season, though, so don't pencil him in for that. But the potential is there for him, starting for a good offensive team and opposite a emerging star. But it also wouldn't be a surprise to see Stallworth perform similar to last season.

Matt Schaub, QB, Texans. Schaub was very good at times last season, but also couldn't stay healthy during his first season as a full-time starter. Schaub averaged more than 200-passing yards per game and had nine touchdowns in 11 games last season. He also threw nine interceptions and missed five games with various injuries. And Sage Rosenfels played well in his place. The Texans won't hesitate to use Rosenfels if Schaub struggles or can't stay healthy. But Schaub can produce big numbers in an improving offense if he can stay healthy and build on his good games last season.

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles. Brown was almost a non-factor early in the season, but got it going after a slow start and finished pretty strong. Brown had touchdowns in two of the lat three games and 288-receiving yards in the month of December. But for the third straight season, Brown failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark. He plays in a good offense, though, an offense that throws often. This seems to be a make or break year for Brown. If he has some struggles, the Eagles could look at some other, younger options at receiver.

Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders. Fargas was a huge surprise last year, becoming the Raiders starter and breaking the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career. And he did this in just seven starts. He got a big contract this offense, but the Raiders used their first-round pick on Darren McFadden, who should take over the starting job in due time. Fargas has been in the league a few years and struggles to stay healthy at times. Can he hold up as the starter over the course of a full season? Fargas also isn't a spring chicken at 28 years of age. He certainly has some question marks heading into his first season as the Raiders full-time starter.

Ben Watson, TE, Patriots. Watson isn't really an injury risk, but more of a guy that gets overlooked at times. The Patriots have so many weapons offensively that Watson can get lost in the shuffle at times. But he can also come up big on any given week. He had a 100-yard game last season and scored five touchdowns in the first five games of last season. The big question is: can Watson be depended on as an every-week starter for fantasy teams?

Overvalued

Overvalued

By Jeff Paur RealTime Fantasy Sports

Every season there are guys in your draft that go higher than they should. Usually, this is a player that is coming off a great year or is getting a lot of hype for various reasons (i.e. expanded role, fast finish). Whatever the reason, try to identify those players and make sure you don't reach too soon. We aren't saying avoid these players altogether, but don't get caught up in the hype and reach for them too soon. Below is our list of overvalued players for the coming season.

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns. We like Anderson and expect him to have another fine season. But he isn't in a great situation with highly touted quarterback Brady Quinn sitting behind him. If Anderson has any problems, you can be sure Browns fans and the media will be calling for Quinn to start. This makes Anderson kind of a risky third or fourth round pick, which is where Anderson is falling. Plus, Anderson has only had one season as a full-time starting quarterback. He isn't in the elite category after just a year.

David Garrard, QB, Jags. Garrard is coming off a huge season, his first as starter. But even with that said, Garrard didn't top 3,000 yards or 20 touchdowns. The Jags remain a run-first team with Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor on board. Jacksonville did get Garrard some help at receiver, but still lack that true No. 1, which is another knock on Garrard. Garrard has potential, but counting on him to be a surefire No. 1 for your fantasy team is a bit of a risk.

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys. Barber has 28 scores the last two seasons. He has been a touchdown machine for the Cowboys, a trend that should continue. But this season he gets to start from day one with Julius Jones gone. The Cowboys used a first-round pick on Felix Jones to lessen the load on Barber, though. He'll take away some work from Barber. Plus, Barber has never rushed for 1,000 yards in his career. His rushing totals will increase, but maybe not enough to make him a first-round pick, which is where Barber is falling. His yardage totals hurt his value, but Barber remains a top option in TD-only leagues. We just think he is going to high in standard leagues.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers. Parker broke the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight season last year. But he scored just twice after scoring 16 TDs the year before. And in '05, Parker scored five times. So if you take out his '06 touchdown totals, Parker has slacked when it comes to scoring touchdowns. And with Rashard Mendenhall around this season, that trend should continue. Parker has good yardage potential, but his lack of scores make him more of a No. 2 or 3 back for fantasy teams.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers. Jennings emerged as the Packers top red-zone target at receiver, scoring 12 touchdowns. He was part of a great Packers passing attack. But Brett Favre is gone, which could hurt the Packers passing game. First-year starter Aaron Rodgers could have some growing pains. And even with his breakout year last season, Jennings still didn't top 1,000 yards and had just 53 receptions. Jennings will make some big plays, but don't take him too early come draft day. His overall numbers could be up and down as Rodgers learns the position.

Javon Walker, WR, Raiders. A lot will take Walker just based on his name. But the days of him producing like he did a few years ago seem about over. His knee remains a big issue. Walker played nine games the last three seasons. He had just 287-receiving yards in eight games last season. He moves to the Raiders where he is expected to serve as the No. 1 receiver. We aren't sure he can live up to that anymore.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers. Some believe Davis will see his career take off with the pass-happy Mike Martz calling plays. But remember that Martz doesn't have a great history when it comes to using the tight end. He has never had a top pass-catching tight end on his team. Davis should see his production go up some in a better offense, but his best season as a pro is 509 yards. Davis isn't an elite No. 1 tight end. He still has a good number of guys to pass up.

Mason Crosby, K, Packers. Crosby led the league in scoring, so his value is high coming into the season. We don't expect him to match last year's stats, though. The Packers offense won't be quite as explosive with Brett Favre gone. And Crosby could get a few more chances on field goals instead of extra points, which might not be a great thing. Crosby had a few struggles on long-distance kicks, making 12-of-19 kicks of 40 or more yards.