Top 30 Fantasy RBs for 2008
1) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
238 carries, 1,341 yards, 12 TDs; 19 receptions, 268 yards, 1 TD
Shocked? Is it blasphemy not to have LaDainian Tomlinson at the top of the list? Get over it. Peterson is a phenom and would have won the rushing title in his rookie year were it not for a RBBC in Minnesota and some injury time. He's a home run threat every time he touches the ball and plays for a team that runs the ball very well and protects leads on defense. He needs to get more involved in the passing game, but once that happens he will be the most complete back since LT entered the league. Except he's bigger and faster. I like him as the top RB for 2008.
2) LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
315 carries, 1,474 yards, 15 TDs; 60 receptions, 475 yards, 3 TDs
I could easily justify dropping LT even farther down the list, but I'm not that crazy. Much to the chagrin of his owners this past season, Tomlinson got off to a rather slow start. Many expected a similar type year to his record setting season of 2006. The Chargers were a Jekyll and Hyde type team early in the year and only in the second half did they find their offensive identity. LT is no spring chicken anymore and has a lot of carries on those legs. Like we said about Larry Johnson last season, he's due for a breakdown. He suffered his first real injury of his career during the playoffs this year and that could be a sign of things to come. His potential is always sky high, but be wary.
3) Steven Jackson, St. Louis
237 carries, 1,002 yards, 5 TDs; 38 receptions, 271 yards, 1 TD
After leading the league in receptions in '06 and finishing in the top five in rushing yards everyone had high hopes for SJax in '07. He was the undisputed #2 overall pick and we all know how that worked out. Injuries and an anemic offense crushed Jackson owners and will surely have soured some on him moving forward. Don't be the one to pass on him because of a bitter taste. The past is the past and injuries heal. Jackson is a stud and worth taking early. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him rack up 2,000 total yards and a dozen TDs.
4) Joseph Addai, Indianapolis
261 carries, 1,072 yards, 12 TDs; 41 receptions, 364 yards, 3 TDs
It's easy to think Addai's numbers were a bit of a letdown considering the high hopes we all had for him heading into the year as the featured back of the Super Champs. And while he did average 4.1 ypc on the year and scored 15 TDs in the regular season, I have a feeling his owners were quietly let down. And while those numbers may not be 'great' for an RB1, they're still pretty good. I'll still take him as my top back in '08 and hope people let him slide after his "disappointing" 2007 campaign.
5) Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia
278 carries, 1,333 yards, 7 TDs; 90 receptions, 771 yards, 5 TDs
Westbrook was unquestionably the MVP of the Eagles this season and, despite a lackluster 8-8 year, he still set a franchise record in yards from scrimmage, scored 12 TDs, and caught 90 balls. His owners should have been more than pleased with his performance this year (other than that little goal line fiasco against Dallas). But Westbrook has silenced all his naysayers that believed he couldn't thrive as an every down back. I'd say 4.8 ypc on 278 carries is proof enough. The return of a healthy QB in Donovan McNabb and the confidence of his coaching staff that now knows Westbrook can be an every down back, should ensure his continued production of stellar numbers.
6) Marion Barber, Dallas
204 carries, 975 yards, 10 TDs; 44 receptions, 282 yards, 2 TDs
Could it be? Could our wish finally be granted? Word is that Julius Jones will be wearing a different uniform for '08, which means Marion Barber will finally get his chance to shine. Barber scored a dozen TDs and racked up over 1,250 total yards in 2007. . . as a backup. Imagine what he can do as the featured back. The guy runs with the intensity of a full back, does not go down easy, and plays with a fire found in few running backs. With the penchant for scoring touchdowns, Dallas' offense will continue to provide Barber with plenty of scoring opportunities. And when he gets in the red-zone, he has a nose for the goal line like no other (even when Jessica Simpson was in the stands). His pass catching ability only adds to his value, so be sure to draft Barber in the first round.
7) Ryan Grant, Green Bay
188 carries, 956 yards, 8 TDs; 30 receptions, 147 yards, 0 TDs
Grant was easily the biggest surprise of the 2007 fantasy season. The Packers got him from the Giants after being told to "pick one" and they chose Grant since he was different from the backs they already had in their stable. Good choice. Grant averaged 5.1 ypc during the regular season and amassed over 1,100 total yards despite playing less than a full season. Assuming QB Brett Favre returns, as it sounds like he will, the Packers boast an explosive offense that scores points and Grant has brought balance to that offense with a solid running game. Expect him to be the starter out of the gate next season and, barring injury, should easily finish in the top 10.
8) Clinton Portis, Washington
325 carries, 1,262 yards, 11 TDs; 47 receptions, 389 yards; 0 TDs
I was very high on Portis heading into '07, and he rewarded me kindly. There were those that shied away from Portis due to his injury plagued '06 campaign that caused him to fall in many drafts. I was able to land Portis in the 4th round of a number of leagues, including FantasyFootball.com's Members Championship Challenge (although I will confess I drafted Ladell Betts just two rounds later). Here's what I said about Portis heading into 2007: "Don't forget about this guy. Portis was a risky pick headed into the 2006 season due to a preseason shoulder injury. And after a season-ending hand injury, the reward was not worth the risk. Many fear what to expect heading into next year, but I expect Portis to return to his all-pro ways. With a young QB in Jason Campbell under center, Portis and the Redskins will be starting with a clean slate. Portis has too much talent not to succeed when healthy, so barring any injury that limits his playing time, Portis should easily find himself in the top-10 once again". As the saying goes, 'fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me'.
9) Laurence Maroney, New England
185 carries, 835 yards, 6 TDs; 4 receptions, 116 yards, 0 TDs
Ok, so clearly '07 was not Maroney's year. With just 185 carries (4.5 ypc) he wasn't given the opportunity to shine (until the playoffs, of course). But keep something in mind as we look forward to 2008: the Patriots will not be chasing any records next season. Tom Brady has his 50 TDs. Moss has his 23. Maroney has proven he's a stud in just a few short weeks and the Patriots understand the importance of a running game. Clearly Maroney can handle the load. Don't expect a repeat of the aerial assault you saw from the Pats this season. Maroney will be more of a featured back in the coming year and I would draft him as my RB1 with confidence.
10) Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants
200 carries, 1,011 yards, 4 TDs; 23 receptions, 174 yards, 2 TDs
Brandon Jacobs is a beast. That's the only way I know how to describe him. He averaged over 5.0 ypc during the regular season and has finally earned his way into the good graces of HC Tom Coughlin, who seemingly savored at the prospect of befuddling fantasy owners by his goal line substitutions that found Jacobs on the bench instead of in the endzone. Coughlin now realizes what he has and, despite the occasional Ahmad Bradshaw sighting, Jacobs is the man. Eli Manning has finally come into his own, TE Jeremy Shockey will return healthy, and Jacobs will continue bowling over defenders in 2008 for the Super Bowl (champs/runner-ups) New York football Giants.
11) Willis McGahee, Baltimore
294 carries, 1,207 yards, 7 TDs; 43 receptions, 231 yards, 1TD
Willis McGahee was one of the most, if not THE most, consistent fantasy running backs of the '07 season. He scored a TD in seven straight games and, despite a troublesome quarterback situation and an aging defense, McGahee still managed to amass over 1,400 total yards and eight touchdowns. The QB situation is still worrisome heading into '08, but the return of a healthy TE Todd Heap (wouldn't that be something?), the further development of WR Mark Clayton, and the continued surprisingly play of WR Derrick Mason all should ensure another solid year for McGahee.
12) Frank Gore, San Francisco
260 carries, 1,102 yards, 5 TDs; 53 receptions, 436 yards, 1 TD
Gore had a breakout year in '06 and, as a result, many were expecting similar type numbers for '07. So much so that he was readily being taken as the #3 overall pick in most drafts. And while the year wasn't a complete bust, his owners were certainly expecting more. Despite his obvious talent, no one could have predicted how bad young QB Alex Smith would be and how impotent the offense would turn out. Smith's poor play, coupled with the absence of TE Vernon Davis for a good part of the year, didn't make Gore's job any easier. As a result, I'm reluctant to rank Gore any higher. I'm even tempted to drop him lower. But for now, I'll keep him just outside the top 10 and hope Alex Smith has a productive offseason and the offense in general gets it going in 2008.
13) Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
321 carries, 1,316 yards, 2 TDs; 23 receptions, 164 yards, 0 TDs
Willie Parker had a terrific 2006 campaign, and many Parker owners were expecting an even bigger year in '07. But the retirement of Bill Cowher and the promotion of Mike Tomlin to HC had a surprising effect on the offense; one that most didn't see coming, myself included. The hardnosed Steelers were no longer a run-first team, but rather a pass oriented offense. How many times did you see QB Ben Roethlisberger throwing from inside the five? Too often. Have you ever seen a RB with as many carries and as many yards with so few TDs? That trend concerns me, and it will certainly cause so owners to shy away from him in next year's drafts. But it's clear he still gets his touches and can be productive. The touchdowns will come and I, for one, will take a chance on him next year. He should be good value as he falls out of the first round. Scoop him up.
14) Jamal Lewis, Cleveland
298 carries, 1,304 yards, 9 TDs; 30 receptions, 248 yards, 2 TDs
I will be the first to admit I was completely and utterly wrong about Jamal Lewis heading into the '07 season. With the number of carries and hits on his resume, I thought he was dead and buried in terms of fantasy production. But Lewis reminded me, and all of us, that there is plenty of life left in those legs. And as just 28 years of age, there's really no reason to think he can't do it again next season. The Browns' offense was explosive, and the play of QB Derrick Anderson and WR Braylon Edwards will open things up for Lewis yet again. As much as I've warmed to him, I can't bring myself to rank him in the top 10. My Sheiner-sense is tingling. But I've been wrong before ;)
15) Reggie Bush, New Orleans
157 carries, 581 yards, 4 TDs; 73 receptions, 417 yards, 2 TDs
So maybe the Houston Texans weren't so dumb after all. Passing on Bush in the draft just a few short years ago raised a lot of eyebrows. And while it's clear Houston could still use a RB, the question of Bush's ability to be an every down back remains. His success in '06 had as much to do with the presence of Deuce McAllister and a high powered offense as it did his talent. But as a standalone back in '07 with an offense struggling to find it's form, Bush's numbers plummeted. If you were in a PPR league, owning Bush wasn't as painful, but surely you were expecting more. McAllister is expected to return in 2008, but he's a year older with another devastating knee injury to rehab. Can Bush break out of the sophomore slump and return to form in '08? I'll believe it when I see it.
16) Larry Johnson, Kansas City
158 carries, 559 yards, 3 TDs; 30 receptions, 186 yards, 1 TD
Scoff if you want, but I was seriously contemplating ranking him even lower. The Chiefs are a mess offensively, they struggle to score points, the QB situation is in disarray, and the offensive line is in shambles. And as we predicted, the record breaking number of carries took it's toll on LJ and a breakdown that was long overdue happened. I reluctantly drafted him in one league this past year and when I watched him run, I didn't like what I saw. He ran like a guy looking to avoid the big hit. Like a guy that just got a big paycheck. Like a guy with no heart. I don't care if he runs for 3,000 yards next season, I'm not drafting Larry Johnson next season. For the purpose of this article, I'll be realistic and rank him in the middle of the pack. But you won't find him on a roster of mine in '08.
17) Ronnie Brown, Miami
119 carries, 602 yards, 4 TDs; 39 receptions, 389 yards, 1 TD
Ronnie Brown was leading the league in rushing early on, and even for a few weeks after sustaining a season ending injury. Nearly 1,000 total yards and five TDs in just seven games is none too shabby. It's hard to believe it, but heading into 2006 many 'experts' predicted the Dolphins would represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLI. Umm, oops. And as bad as they were in '06, they were even worse in 2007. Yet Brown excelled. Could he have made the difference for a team that won but a single game? With Bill Parcells in control now and a new head coach coming in from a successful offense, expect a decent year from Brown assuming he can recover fully from his injury. I'm a bit leery about the QB situation and the departure of Hudson Hauck, who breathed new life into the O-line, doesn't please me either. But Brown is worth taking a risk on as a low end RB1 or high end RB2.
18) Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo
244 carries, 1,057 yards, 10 TDs; 30 receptions, 198 yards, 0 TDs
If it wasn't for uber-stud Adrian Peterson, you could make an argument for Lynch as offensive rookie of the year in '07. But alas, it was not to be. But considering how difficult it is for a rookie to make the leap to the NFL and transition smoothly and successfully, I'd say Lynch had a terrific rookie campaign. The Bills are on the rise and Lynch should continue to evolve as a player. He'll be an integral part of the offense and will benefit from an offense that can throw the ball well. Expect another solid year from Lynch and consider him a solid RB2 next season.
19) Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
167 carries, 768 yards, 9 TDs; 40 receptions, 407 yards, 0 TDs
Is there a bigger enigma in the NFL? You never know what to expect in terms of the number of touches, but he's got the potential to take it to the house every time he gets the ball in his hands. And despite the resurgence of backfield mate Fred Taylor, MJD still managed to post some rather impressive numbers of his own. At just 5'7", his durability concerns me, but his speed is enticing as is the Jags proclivity for running the ball. It remains to be seen who comes out on top next season, but more often than not, youth prevails, so I'll give the edge to MJD.
20) Edgerrin James, Arizona
324 carries, 1,232 yards, 7 TDs; 25 receptions, 196 yards, 0 TDs
It's hard to say I'm surprised with Edge's struggles since his move from the cushy dome in Indy to the heat of the desert. But if you look at his numbers more closely, it's even more disappointing. His yardage totals his last two years are his lowest since 2002. Same is true for his 3.6 ypc he's averaged during his two seasons in Arizona. And his 25 receptions are his lowest since '01. Edge will be 30 when the season starts in '08 and he has 2,849 carries on his pro career. The Cards threw the ball a lot this season, and if their defense continues to struggle, that won't change next season. I'd draft him as nothing more than a low end RB2 next year, and I'd be sure to take my RB3 sooner than usual.
21) Fred Taylor, Jacksonville
223 carries, 1,202 yards, 5 TDs; 9 receptions, 58 yards, 0 TDs
Wow, where to begin? Taylor had a stellar year despite his age (31 – he'll be 32 this week) and his penchant for injuries. And while many had written him off, myself included, with the emergence of Maurice Jones-Drew just one short year ago, a year like this was unexpected to say the least. I'm reluctant to believe, however, that Fred has more magic elixir from the fountain of youth at his disposal. He's on the wrong side of 30 with nearly 2,300 yards on his resume. That's a lot of totes for a guy labeled as 'injury prone'. If there was ever a year to expect one, this is it. I'd draft him as my RB3, but I wouldn't be comfortable having him as an every week starter. The risk is too great in my opinion. It was great to see the kind of year he had in '07, I'm just not willing to bet he'll do it again.
22) Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay
222 carries, 898 yards, 10 TDs; 49 receptions, 324 yards, 0 TDs
Next to Ryan Grant, Graham was the biggest surprise of the '07 season. He racked up nice numbers despite starting less than the full complement of games. He's likely to be the starter heading into the '08 season as the St. Petersburg Times is "not convinced" that Cadillac Williams (torn patellar tendon) will be able to go. The team is already looking to extend Graham's despite him being under contract through 2008. That does not bode well for Cadillac. And with Michael Pittman is expected to test the free agent waters and Michael Bennett unlikely to return, Graham will be the man.
23) Deuce McAllister, New Orleans
24 carries, 92 yards, 0 TDs; 4 receptions, 15 yards, 0 TDs
Don't fall asleep on this guy. Yes he's coming back from yet another season ending knee injury, but when he was healthy McAllister was thriving in one of the more explosive offenses in the NFC. And that was not in spite of Bush, but with him. McAllister will have 10 full months of rehab by the time training camp starts and the team fully expects him to be ready for the start of the season. That's good news for both RBs in Nawlins and barring any setbacks, Deuce could see 200+ carries, 900+ yards and seven or more TDs.
24) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
144 carries, 717 yards, 4 TDs; 23 receptions, 177 yards, 1 TD
The Panthers are the team to watch out for a big rebound next year. The return of a healthy Jake Delhomme will revitalize a struggling passing game and DeAngelo Williams will be a big factor in the running game. D-Will averaged 5.0 ypc on 144 carries while DeShaun Foster averaged just 3.5 ypc. And with over 100 fewer carries, Williams rivaled Foster's yardage totals and scored more TDs. The time has come for Williams to start seeing more touches and this should be the year it happens. His potential is sky high, but until I see his name atop the depth chart on opening day, I can't rank him higher than this.
25) LenDale White, Tennessee
337 carries, 1,159 yards, 6 TDs; 38 receptions, 217 yards, 0 TDs
White finally put down the Twinkies and Ho-Ho's and got down to business. Despite competition from both Chris Henry and Chris Brown, White was the most productive of the three and should be the starter come opening day in '08. With the dual threat in QB Vince Young under center, White should continue to have opportunities to produce. If the Titans can develop the passing game to keep defenses honest, White will surpass his '07 numbers with ease.
26) Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati
297 carries, 1,209 yards, 6 TDs; 36 receptions, 154 yards, 0 TDs
Previously known as Mr. Consistency for his three straight 1,300 rushing yard/12 TD seasons, Rudi suffered a huge letdown in an injury plagued 2007 season. The Bengals are arguably the worst good team I've ever seen, and Rudi suffered as a result. Despite his previous consistency, this team just can't be trusted for offensive production. Rudi may outperform this ranking, but I'll need to see it to believe it. But I wouldn't draft Rudi as anything more than a low tier RB2.
27) Thomas Jones, New York Jets
310 carries, 1,119 yards, 1 TD; 28 receptions, 217 yards, 1 TD
After resurrecting his career in Chicago, big things were expected from TJ as the sole ball carrier for the Jets. Only one problem: he plays for the Jets. They were near the bottom of the league in points scored and their defense didn't help matters much. And Jones' 3.6 ypc is his lowest since 2001 when we has with the Cardinals. There's no reason to believe the Jets will be any better next season and TJ's production will likely continue to suffer. He'll be on my 'avoid' list next year.
28) Chester Taylor, Minnesota
157 carries, 844 yards, 7 TDs; 29 receptions, 281 yards, 0 TDs
There was a lot of hype surrounding Taylor heading into 2006, and many had him labeled as a sleeper worth drafting. And though he averaged 4.0 yards per carry, his lack of scoring hurt his fantasy numbers. He didn't live up to expectations and let a lot of owners down. 2007 was better, as he averaged a whopping 5.4 ypc on limited touches. Of course, that's no longer his biggest concern. The presence of stud running back Adrian Peterson in the backfield causes Taylor's value to take a big hit. The fact that Minnesota runs the ball so well is the only reason Taylor still makes this list. If Peterson suffers an injury, Taylor's value will skyrocket. Otherwise, don't consider Taylor as anything more than a RB3 or a handcuff to AD.
29) Shaun Alexander, Seattle
207 carries, 716 yards, 4 TDs; 14 receptions, 76 yards, 1 TD
That's two straight seasons shortened by injury in which Alexander failed to reach 1,000 rushing yards and scored just 12 TDs combined over the two years. He's not involved in the passing game, will turn 31 before the season begins, and has 2,176 carries to his name. Alexander is the other name here that will be on my 'avoid' list heading into my '08 drafts. Expect to see more Maurice Morris and another disappointing season for Alexander and his owners.
30) Cedric Benson, Chicago
197 carries, 678 yards, 4 TDs; 17 receptions, 123 yards, 0 TDs
I was really tempted to leave Benson entirely off this list. I wouldn't want him on my team, certainly not as an every week starter. A bye week filler is all I'd consider him at this point. As the undisputed starter for the Bears with Thomas Jones in New York, Benson averaged a meager 3.4 ypc and scored just four touchdowns in an injury shortened season. Even when healthy, he was regularly outplayed by the 'other' Adrian Peterson. I'm not optimistic about things improving in 2008 for the Bears offense and will likely not own Benson on any of my fantasy teams unless I see radical improvement during the preseason.