Top 10 Rookie IDPs

#1 LB Paul Posluszny, Buffalo--Coming into the league as a rookie, Posluszny finds himself in an ideal situation after an off-season exodus of marquee linebackers from Buffalo. Both of the departed stars - OLB Takeo Spikes (Philadelphia) and MLB London Fletcher-Baker (Washington) - amassed exceptional fantasy numbers in the Bills defensive system and the highly-touted Poslusny stands to inherit some excellent playmaking opportunities. Though he is currently listed as a second stringer behind undrafted 2006 free-agent pick-up John DiGiorgio on the team website, it's safe to view this as a mere formality. Posluszny should have every chance to prove his mettle in training camp and this hard-nosed, blue-collar tackle machine from Penn State will almost certainly open the season as the Bills' starting middle linebacker. Not the most athletic LB to come out of this year's draft, Posluszny is nevertheless the most NFL-ready of the 2007 class and he figures to record plenty of tackles for Buffalo this season.

#2 DB LaRon Landry, Washington--Slated to start opposite Sean Taylor in the Redskins secondary, LaRon Landry brings a fairly similar skill-set to that of his volatile colleague. Both are highly athletic, aggressive, ball-hawking safeties who roam well and cover a great deal of ground. And while Landry may not be quite the destructive hitter that Taylor is, he is considerably more polished in coverage and will put himself in position to make plenty of interceptions. At LSU, Landry was the sort of dominant presence that offensive coordinators quickly learned to avoid. Being paired with a player the caliber of Sean Taylor means that opposing coaches won't have that option when they face Landry in the NFL. He provides an immediate and substantial upgrade to the disappointing Adam Archuletta and should post decent fantasy numbers right away.

#3 LB Patrick Willis, San Francisco--Willis is currently set to battle veteran Derrick Smith for the 49ers weak inside linebacker spot, but it's a battle Willis should win - if not by the end of training camp, then by fairly early in the season. The 2006 Butkus Award and Lambert Trophy winner is simply too gifted to be kept off the field and he will get plenty of opportunities in nickel and special teams situations (even if he doesn't start right away). From a fantasy perspective, his numbers will be somewhat limited playing the weak-side ILB spot. Should he eventually earn the strong-side position, his value will take a tremendous leap. He's definitely a player to keep an eye on as he goes forward.

#4 DB Reggie Nelson, Jacksonville--This off-season, FS Deion Grant migrated to Seattle via free agency and SS Donovan Darius was released, leaving vacancies at both safety positions in Jacksonville. Reggie Nelson now walks in to assume a starting role as a rookie and should have fantasy relevance immediately; although, in the past, Jaguar safeties have been relatively quiet in terms of fantasy production. Nelson will be asked to do a great deal in Jack Del Rio's defensive scheme (largely, to compensate for the short-comings of incumbent strong safety Gerald Sensabaugh) and he should be up to the task. He is stellar against both the run and the pass and should quickly become one of the strengths of this secondary unit.

#5 LB Jon Beason, Carolina--Thought by some to be a little undersized, Beason will fit in nicely on a team that consists of many similarly underrated players with chips on their shoulders. With the Miami Hurricanes last year, Beason distinguished himself by being a reliable playmaker and a leader on the field. Scouts have compared him favorably to Jacksonville's Mike Peterson for his well-rounded play and excellent field sense and it's worth noting that Peterson also overcame doubts about his size to become one of the most respected linebackers in the league. In Carolina's May mini camp, Beason was playing with the first stringers at the weak-side linebacker spot, though he could still face training camp challenges from Na'il Diggs. Nevertheless, he figures to get plenty of playing time and, given Dan Morgan's recent injury history, it's not unlikely that Beason may find himself playing the middle linebacker spot - his natural position - at some point this season, which would certainly mean improved fantasy production.

#6 DL Jamaal Anderson, Atlanta--Unlike some other rookies on this list, Anderson's success this season may be largely dependent on a veteran player staying healthy. Provided he can overcome the injuries that plagued him last year, John Abraham will be drawing double-teams from the right defensive end spot, leaving Anderson to work in more favorable blocking conditions on the left side. Because of questions about his size and ability to match up with the bigger NFL O-linemen, Anderson is not likely to be an every down guy, but his elite pass-rushing ability means that he will see action on passing downs and could still put together good enough numbers in limited playing time to be worthy of fantasy consideration. The same player who recorded 13.5 sacks last year as a junior in Arkansas will be given plenty of opportunities on Atlanta's young and improving defense.

#7 DB Darrell Revis, New York Jets--Revis is a sure-tackler who should walk in right away and start at corner for the Jets. The players he draws the most comparison to - Ty Law and Charles Woodson - are physical, run-supporting corners who add safety-like tackle numbers to their INT totals. Last season the Jets had some struggles up front adjusting to Eric Mangini's 3-4 scheme -- which meant that added pressure was put on the secondary, resulting in plenty of tackles for the likes of Justin Miller and Andre Dyson. With similar expectations for the defense this year, Revis could put up some decent fantasy numbers, especially as a young guy whom other coaches are likely to target. More passes thrown his way only means more chances to make plays.

#8 LB Lawrence Timmons, Pittsburgh--At the time of the draft, Timmons seemed like a perfect fit for the Pittsburgh Steelers. They needed a replacement for Joey Porter and a guy like Timmons is versatile enough that he can be used in either the existing 3-4 alignment or the 4-3 set that new head coach Mike Tomlin has suggested he'd like to employ. Things have not gone smoothly thus far with Timmons' time in Pittsburgh as he has suffered a rash of injuries and has yet (as of July 16th) to sign a contract with the team. He's now at risk of losing out to James Harrison in his bid to start at outside linebacker backer this year. If he gets healthy and gets his contract signed, Timmons would be worth some late fantasy consideration. He's lightning quick and, if given the chance a chance to start, could put up respectable numbers. He's another guy that will get plenty of opportunities to prove himself on the field this year, even if he's not a first day starter.

#9 DB Brandon Merriweather, New England--One of the big surprises in this year's draft was New England's selection of Brandon Merriweather at #24 overall - not because of any questions about his playing ability, but because of perceived issues surrounding his "character." With so much focus on off-field issues in Roger Goodell's NFL regime, the risk to the Patriots of taking a guy like Merriweather - who was involved in the notorious head-stomping incident in the Miami-Florida International game last year - is significant. Nevertheless. From a strictly skill-based standpoint, the pick was ideal for both parties. Merriweather gets to join one of the league's best defenses under the tutelage of an all-time great at his position and the Patriots are able to groom an aggressive and highly skilled future replacement for team icon Rodney Harrison. If Harrison and Eugene Wilson are both healthy to start the season (a dubious possibility given their recent injury histories), Merriweather will likely see only limited play. However, an injury to either safety would open the door for a starting spot and the potential for top tier safety numbers.

#10 DL Anthony Spencer, Dallas--Spencer has every chance to develop into one of the league's elite pass-rushers, provided he can adapt to the move from end to outside linebacker. He has all the potential in the world, is a devastating physical presence and tackler with deceptive playing speed who could evolve into a game-changing NFL player. However, so much is dependent on how quickly he adapts playing in the Dallas defense. He's likely to find himself opening the season behind veteran Greg Ellis, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him work his way into the starting lineup by mid-season or later. Certainly, he will get lots of spot-playing time as Wade Phillips will work to find ways to integrate this new weapon into his team's defensive scheme.

Other Rookies to keep an eye on:

DL Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay--Eventual replacement for Simeon Rice. A speed rusher who is perfectly suited to playing end in the Tampa 2.

DL Adam Carriker, St Louis--Has moved inside to nose tackle where, according to coaches, he has been a beast.

CB Michael Griffin, Tennessee--May take time adjusting to the move from safety to corner. A kick blocking specialist who makes special teams interesting.

DL Amobi Okoye, Houston--Should give Houston that much needed push up the middle. Will help boost the fantasy stats of other Texan players - most notably, Mario Williams.

DL Jarvis Moss, Denver--A situational guy and pass-rush specialist who may be used in much the same way Elvis Dummervill was used last year.

LB Quincy Black, Tampa Bay--A madman tackler and speed demon who could eventually find himself taking over for Derrick Brooks.

DB Sabby Piscitelli, Tampa Bay--Tough "gamer" safety who is suited to zone coverage.

LB Mike Okwo, Chicago--Could reap the early rewards from Lance Briggs' impending holdout.

DB Eric Weddle, San Diego--Chargers safeties were unimpressive last year. Any early struggles could usher in this fresh face.

DB Leon Hall, Cincinnati--A true playmaker who should develop into a great NFL cover corner.

 

Potential Holdouts

Training camps are opening around the league and that means players will start sweating it out in the summer heat getting ready for the regular season.

Some fantasy owners are doing a little sweating of their own because there are some prime-time players out there who are threatening to hold out for better contract deals. (Or, in the case of Marc Bulger, at least musing about the possibility of holding out.)

Some of the pre-camp grumblings might have you wondering what to do with a player on your team or when draft time rolls around. Here's a rundown on some of the holdout situations around the league.

Larry Johnson, Kansas City

Obviously, LJ is the biggest story in terms of holdouts. Johnson wants his rookie deal re-worked and is reportedly asking for somewhere in the neighborhood of $80 to $90 million over eight years. The Chiefs are saying that they are willing to listen to trade offers for one of the league's most dominating RBs, who is entering his fifth NFL season. It should be noted that Johnson has not said with certainty that he won't be in camp when the team convenes July 27, but he did say with a bit of mystery that reporters "won't be able to find me" when recently asked about attending. One team that has been mentioned as a possible suitor for Johnson is Green Bay, a move that would shore up the Packers' questionable running attack, caused by Ahman Green's departure.

If you have Johnson in a keeper league, then all you can do is hold on to him and hope for one of the two best outcomes: a quick resolution to the problem by having his contract redone by the Chiefs or a quick trade to another team, ensuring that he won't miss any playing time. (You can also entertain trade offers for Johnson from other owners in your league, but the offer better be a damn good one.) If your league is starting from scratch and you have, say, the second or third pick in your draft, then you have a few options. One, take Johnson and just hope that the situation doesn't turn completely sour, causing your first pick to miss considerable playing time. Second, bypass Johnson and take Steven Jackson or Shaun Alexander, leaving the potential headache and/or stress for another owner. Of course, if you have a lower draft pick and LJ is still available - for example, the fourth or fifth pick - it becomes more difficult to pass on him. In fact, common sense dictates that he should be taken no lower than sixth in any draft. No matter your dilemma, keeper league or draft position, stay tuned to FFToolbox.com and other sources for updates.

Marc Bulger, St. Louis

One of the league's and fantasy world's top QBs caused a bit of a stir when he stated on a Sirius Satellite Radio interview, "I don't want to rule anything out," when asked about holding out if he did not receive a new contract before the season started. Bulger's comment no doubt sent a bit of a chill down the spine of any owner who has the captain of "The Greatest Show on Turf" on a keeper team. From all indications, however, the possibility of Bulger holding out is slim and reports out of St. Louis are that he will have a new contract before the regular season starts (if not before training camp starts July 26).

Brady Quinn, Cleveland

Oh, to be young, handsome, athletically gifted, and comically spurned. Quinn, the darling of just about every pre-draft analyst - Will he go to the Browns at No. 3? (No.) Will he go to the Dolphins at No. 9? (Uh, that was another no.) - lasted until pick No. 22 when the Browns mercifully put an end to his on-screen embarrassment. Now, there are insinuations that Quinn and his agent will hold out for Top 10 money because, I guess, that's where Mel Kiper said Quinn should have been drafted. Actually, their thinking is that Cleveland gave up a second-round pick in 2007 and a first-round pick in 2008 for the chance to take Quinn with the 22nd pick in 2007 and given the great possibility that the Browns will once again have a top-10 pick in 2008... well, I think you can follow their logic.

Except for the fact that it's not really all that logical. He was taken in the bottom third of the first round in 2007 and he should receive a contract that corresponds to his placement. In all honesty, of what great concern is this to fantasy owners? Not much. If Brady Quinn goes in your draft, your league is undoubtedly keeper- or dynasty-oriented and a deep one at that. Besides, even without a holdout, Quinn is in for a battle to get on the field before 2008. Charlie Frye is not a great QB, but he was serviceable last year for the Browns before he got hurt and the team did take steps during the offseason to shore up that pathetic offensive line. And perhaps Jamal Lewis has one more solid season in him, taking the pressure off the QB position in Cleveland. Holdout or not, fantasy owners should not count on Quinn for anything more than taking up a roster spot in 2007.

As of July 23, only three first-round draft picks have inked deals with their teams, but no other rookie besides Quinn has made noise about not signing before the season starts. Obviously, fantasy owners want to see guys who might make an immediate impact, such as JaMarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, and Anthony Gonzalez, among a few others in camp as soon as possible so that there is no concern about a slow start once the season begins for real.

If you are in a league that drafts individual defensive players, the only players that are rumored to be in possible holdout patterns are New England cornerback Asante Samuel and Chicago linebacker Lance Briggs.

Samuel recently commented that he will wait until Week 10 of the NFL season - the deadline for being considered for free agency next season - before showing up to play for the Patriots. Hmmm, the last Patriot to play this game with the organization - Deion Branch - ended up in Seattle. While Samuel's importance to New England seems rather clear - he is their best CB - the Patriots don't seem to be in a big hurry to get him signed.

Briggs is in a bit of a different situation. No one will make the mistake of calling him the best Bears' LB since he plays next to a guy named Urlacher, so Chicago will have a more laissez-faire attitude toward meeting Briggs's demands.

From a team defense perspective, the Bears are considered a top-three defense with or without Briggs, while the Patriots might lose a spot or two without Samuel.

by Jack Clifford, Monday, July 23, 2007

 

 

Updated Player News

In the first of what could be many disciplinary actions Michael Vick could face this year, Commissioner Goodell has asked Atlanta QB Michael Vick to stay away from Atlanta's training camp to concentrate on his legal problems. I think you can take Vick off your cheat sheet.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and S Troy Polamalu have agreed on a 4-year deal through 2011. The deal is said to be $33 million dollars. Polamalu is a top 10 IDP defensive back. Draft him once the run of safeties takes place in your draft.

The San Diego Chargers have reached an agreement in principle with 1st round pick WR Craig Davis. Terms of the 5-year deal were not disclosed. Davis is a nice sleeper in redraft leagues and an even better option in keeper leagues.

Sources from the Giants and DE Michael Strahan's camp have said that Strahan will not hold out and will report to camp on Friday. Strahan is old but he still can play. He is a top 20 DL on most draft sheets.

Miami Dolphins 2nd round pick, QB John Beck, has signed a 4-year deal. The deal is a 3-year deal and an option that will pay him $2.25 million in guaranteed money. This guy is worth a shot in keeper leagues. Trent Green isn't getting any younger.

Updated Player News
Cowboys second year DE Marcus Spears lost around 20 pounds in preparation for the new 3-4 defensive scheme installed by HC Wade Phillips. Spears, now down to 290 lbs, is looking forward to his new/old defense. "This is what I was used to (at LSU), and this is getting back to what made me successful," Spears said. Spears may be optimistic about the season but he is no help to IDP owners.

Houston Texans tight end Owen Daniels is now 100% recovered from a shoulder injury which hindered his performance during the last half of the 2006 regular season. Daniels is considered a TE2 with sleeper possibility.

Likeliest to earn the most playing time at the Browns No. 3 receiver spot are '06 third-round pick Travis Wilson, kick returner Joshua Cribbs, and Tim Carter, who was acquired in a March trade that sent Reuben Droughns to the Giants. While all three players have proven ability, Carter has marked 72 receptions in five seasons in New York, while Cribbs and Wilson have a combined 13 career receptions. None of these guys will help your fantasy team...like most Browns.

Don't be surprised if Cowboys RB Julius Jones has another career year with his contract expiring after the season. His production always depends on the number of carries he gets, but Jones is out to prove he's an elite back and will be looking to cash in with a lucrative long-term deal. Barber will steal some carries but Jones could surprise fantasy owners that pass on him. Right now he should be considered a RB3.