2012's Breakout Receivers

Updated, 8/11/12

 

The recent coaching cliché around the NFL is that wide receiver is the hardest position to pick up and play immediately in the entire league, outside of quarterback. And given how many rookies in 2011’s lockout year made a true, consistent impact at the position from Week One on – only A.J. Green, although Julio Jones put up good numbers – the theory is not that hard to see statistically.

 

Additionally, the new focus on exploiting mismatches at the TE position has made the once thankless job of a blocker who makes the occasional catch one of the flashiest positions in the entire league. But it took even Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham one year each to truly make historic impacts.

So this article, which we’ve been publishing for years now, details those WRs and TEs who are entering their second and third seasons who could possibly take the next “leap” toward superstardom. Obviously, we’ll start up top with the usual suspects. But because one second- year player in 2011, Victor Cruz, came out of nowhere, we felt it important to dig deep and examine the situations for a great number of talented youngsters, even if their current predicaments seem impossible to overcome.

 

Players Added to this Update

• Lestar Jean (WR, Hou)

Second-Year WRs

 

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

 

A.J. Green (Cin, 4^th pick overall) – Green felt like a can’t-miss pick for the Bengals last season, and that’s exactly what he was. Despite playing with a fellow rookie with some arm limitations in QB Andy Dalton, Green proved to be a dangerous threat in his first season in the league, posting 65/1057/7 on 112 targets (58% catch rate) with an average of 10.2 FPG, and that included missing some time with a shoulder injury. For a rookie receiver, those are great numbers, and they’ll only get better as he and Dalton get more comfortable in the pro game. Green might be topped only by Calvin Johnson in terms of raw ability, but he’s still looking to improve his game, as evidenced by his work with Larry Fitzgerald this off-season and the team looking to “clean up” his route running, according to OC Jay Gruden. While Green is easily the top receiver in Cincinnati, he’ll get some help with the addition of rookie WR Mohamed Sanu, the return of WR Jordan Shipley, and TE Jermaine Gresham. The sky is truly the limit for Green, who has also taken on more of a leadership role this year. So it wouldn’t shock us if he finished in the top three among fantasy WRs in 2012.

 

• 8/11 update: Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com told us this week that Green is up 10 pounds this year to about 211, which should help him increase his physicality with no drop-off in his speed. Hobson also told us that Green has been ridiculous in camp, making spectacular play after spectacular play. He’s the only WR on the offense guaranteed to start, and there’s no doubt QB Andy Dalton will be counting on him to be the go-to guy here.

We know Julio Jones is good, so the question in his second year is can he be great and elite for fantasy.

Julio Jones (Atl, 6^th pick overall) – The Falcons were looking for a complement to Roddy White last season, so they traded up to take Jones, who was regarded as the best WR in the draft after A.J. Green. Jones proved to be a valuable addition when he was on the field. He was limited to 13 games due to hamstring issues that came into play at various points in the season, yet he still ended up with 54/959/8 on 84 targets, with a whopping 17.8 YPC and 11.5 FPG, which ranked him among the top 10 at the position. At 6’3”, 220 pounds, Jones is a well-built receiver who has good vertical speed and is also effective on crossing routes. He developed into a better route-runner over the course of the season, and while he still has plenty of room for improvement, it will help to have a full off-season of work. He’s gotten rave reviews for his work at the team’s minicamps and will be looking to find more consistency in his second year, especially since the Falcons will be looking to ramp up their passing attack to keep pace with the other dangerous offenses in the NFC. Jones put up good numbers last year, and in Year Two, he may be poised to put up massive digits.

 

• 8/11 update: Jones has been one of the most hyped players in fantasy football this summer, and he’s got a fan in-house as well: WR Roddy White. On a potential breakout campaign for Jones, White said, “He's going to be real good. I mean really, really special.” It's a strong statement from White, who forms the top 1-2 punch at WR with Jones. Just who will be the top receiver for the Falcons is yet to be seen, but the fact that Jones even has a chance to unseat Roddy as QB Matt Ryan’s favorite target should be plenty to get fans excited about him. Jones went nuts in the preseason opener with over 100 yards and a TD in about a quarter.

Torrey Smith (Bal, 58^th pick overall) - Smith entered the league as a raw second-round pick last season, known for his big-play ability but unpolished route running. The Ravens decided to trade for Lee Evans, and it looked like Smith was going to be brought along slowly. However, with Evans unable to make an impact, mostly due to an ankle injury, Smith was thrust into a starting role for most of the season, and he proved to be a dangerous big-play receiver. However, he was inconsistent overall and struggled with drops at times, and he does not yet have a complete game. The Ravens knew he was raw, but with a lack of depth in their receiving corps, they had no other choice but to start the rookie. Of course, his downfield speed mixed with the big arm of Joe Flacco proved to be a deadly combination when the two connected, and Smith finally gave Flacco a receiver who could truly take advantage of his power arm. Smith may have been inconsistent, but he finished the season with 50/841/7 (16.8 YPC) on 94 targets to rank 28^th at WR, with an average of 8.7 FPG. Although we still have questions about his lack of polish, Smith should remain in the starting lineup opposite veteran Anquan Boldin, and if he’s able to continue his development and Flacco steps up his game, this could be an even more dangerous connection in 2012.

 

• 8/11 update: The Ravens have been very pleased with Smith’s camp thus far, according to the Baltimore Sun. Smith has focused on his underneath route running and his downfield blocking, two areas that escaped him in his flashy but raw rookie season. Coach John Harbaugh acknowledged Smith is working harder to become a more complete receiver, which could indeed give the Ravens the impetus to uncork QB Joe Flacco’s arm more often. On the downside, he’ll miss 1-2 weeks with an injury.

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Denarius Moore (Oak, 148^th pick overall) – Moore may have slipped to the 5^th round in last year’s draft, but we had our eyes on him even before the Raiders took him. We saw plenty of potential in the preseason, and while it didn’t necessarily translate to a fantastic rookie season, Moore made everyone realize how dangerous he was and the damage he could do. Moore played 13 games, starting 10, and totaled 33/618/5 (18.7 YPC) on 73 targets (45.2% caught) to rank 33^rd among WRs, with an average of 8 FPG. A foot injury cost him three games in the second half of the season, which was a shame, since it appeared that he and Carson Palmer were starting to really develop some chemistry. Moore was not a complete receiver as a rookie, but he showed a lot of ability as a vertical threat because of his exceptional speed and burst, and you have to expect improvement in all areas, now that he has a full season and an actual off-season under his belt. He already appears to be ahead of Jacoby Ford on the depth chart and should see a lot of time, possibly as a starter, opposite Darrius Heyward-Bey in his second season. We already know he can make big plays, so now in Year Two it’s a question of staying on the field and consistently making big plays. If he does both, we’re looking at something special in Moore.

 

• 8/11 update: News hasn’t been great for Moore, who has aggravated that hamstring injury from the spring multiple times and has missed practice time of late. The Raiders are clearly being careful with their young receiver. In fact, they’re probably babying the injury, which is actually a sign that they’re really looking to protect a player who is a big investment this year. But hamstring can linger, especially in a guy who needs his speed to make an impact. It remains to be seen if Moore will play in the Raiders’ preseason opener against the Cowboys on Monday night.
  Denarius Moore has a chance to be special, and if that's going to be the case we'll see definite signs of it in his second season.

Greg Little (Cle, 59^th pick overall) – When the Browns traded out of the #6 spot in last year’s draft, they passed on taking Julio Jones, instead believing they’d get better value out of taking Little in the second round. Jones ended up having a much better season, but he was in a much better situation as well. We don’t want to make too many excuses for Little’s somewhat disappointing rookie season, but he had a terrible QB situation and was forced into the #1 role, since the team had very little talent at WR. For the season, Little caught 61 passes for 709 yards and just 2 TDs on 114 targets (53.5%). Those aren’t bad numbers for a rookie catching passes from an inaccurate Colt McCoy, but the drops and the lack of TDs killed his value, as he averaged only 5.6 FPG in standard leagues. If Little can improve catching the ball, he can become a dangerous option, since he’s very good after the catch and tough to bring down on first contact. He’s a former running back in college, so he not only has a big and sturdy body, but he also was clearly still learning the position last year. New QB Brandon Weeden should provide Little with a much more catchable ball and should generally be an all-around better QB than McCoy. Little still doesn’t have much help around him, but we’d still expect to see significant improvement in his second season.

 

• 8/11 update: Little is expected to be the focal point of the Browns’ passing game this year. What’s been most interesting for his potential fantasy value? Little, the presumed #1 WR, has been slipping into the slot when the team goes three-wide, meaning the club might indeed find a way to get gifted rookie Josh Gordon on the field often early. Little's size and physicality will play well from the inside, as well. He hasn’t garnered a lot of headlines in camp, but we’re told he’s been more than fine, and has actually come on a little the last week.

Doug Baldwin (Sea, undrafted) – Somehow Baldwin went from an UDFA this past year to arguably Seattle’s most reliable receiver in 2011. Baldwin played in all 16 games, catching 51/788/4 on 84 targets (60.7%). He ranked only 50^th at the WR position, with average 6.4 FPG, but among rookies he finished fourth in catches and receiving yards, behind only A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Greg Little, which is not bad, considering he wasn’t among the 28 WRs taken in last April’s draft. Baldwin is undersized and may struggle to ever develop into an outside receiver, but he could make a nice impact out of the slot. He’s probably the quickest receiver they have in line for a lot of playing time, and he has some juice to him. He should continue to see the field quite often, considering Sidney Rice is coming off a double shoulder surgery, and we haven’t seen much consistency from guys like Golden Tate, Ben Obomanu, and Michael Williams. Kellen Winslow joins the underutilized Zach Miller at TE and the team added QB Matt Flynn to compete with Tarvaris Jackson for the starting job. We’ll be interested to see if Baldwin can build on his surprising rookie season, especially if he needs to develop chemistry with Flynn in their first year together. Also, it’s worth noting that we were told he disappeared at times last year because he was inexperienced running routes against certain kinds of coverage, so his upside is tangible if he can make strides in terms of his understanding of the game.

 

• 8/11 update: Although things around him are changing rapidly, don’t expect much of a change in Baldwin’s projection – he still looks like a very gifted slot receiver, and a viable PPR threat. The Seahawks continue to look to upgrade their WR corps, adding veteran Terrell Owens after cutting Antonio Bryant. But once again, when it comes to Baldwin, that shouldn’t matter too much. And if T.O. is actually effective, that could help Baldwin’s numbers.

Titus Young (Det, 44^th pick overall) – Young was almost a luxury addition for the Lions last season, since they already had arguably the top receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson, plus a reliable veteran in Nate Burleson and a pair of solid TEs in Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler. His role was a bit undefined as a rookie, but he still managed to put up 48/607/6 on 85 targets, which was good for 6.1 FPG (53^rd). Being part of the pass-happy Lion offense probably boosted those numbers somewhat, but we’re interested to see what happens with Young going forward. The Lions presumably drafted Young to be a deep threat, but it’s tough to tell if he’ll truly develop into a consistent outside threat. He can get vertical, but he’s not quite as fast as people think. Additionally, he needs to work on becoming a better route runner, so he has a long way to go. The team took WR Ryan Broyles in the second round of this year’s draft, but if he’s able to get over his torn ACL from last year, Broyles would seem to benefit from time in the slot, which wouldn’t necessarily cut into Young’s playing time. However, if Broyles can play and does play, Young will have to earn snaps over the veteran Burleson, so having a year under his belt will help him. Young also needs to keep his focus and avoid stupid mishaps like his altercation with teammate Louis Delmas, but if he keeps it together and continues his progression, he might be okay in an offense that likes to throw it a lot. He was off to a good start after that altercation in the June minicamps, where we’re told he lit it up during several of their final spring workouts.

 

• 8/11 update: Young has had a quiet camp thus far, which is not necessarily a bad thing, and he’s been adding kick and punt returns to his potential arsenal. In fact, Young received a potential major blow to his fantasy value early in camp when rookie WR Ryan Broyles (ACL) was cleared off the PUP list, but Broyles is still not going full bore, as he’s had some days during which he’s experienced soreness and has had to sit out. Young still appears to have a hold on the #3 WR job, but Broyles is a more gifted receiver and can certainly make his impact when he’s fully healthy.

Jonathan Baldwin (KC, 26^th pick overall) – Baldwin’s NFL career got off to a rough start, as the 2011 first-round pick injured his thumb in a preseason fight with veteran RB Thomas Jones. Because of that, he didn’t make his debut until Week Seven. He got off to a solid start on the field, putting up 5/82/1 in Week Eight against the Chargers, but that was the last we really heard from him. He finished the season with only 21/254/1 on 51 targets (41.2%), and while some of his lack of production can be blamed on Matt Cassel’s injury and the shaky QB situation, he clearly didn’t progress enough to get on the field much. Of course, the Chiefs felt comfortable enough with Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston, but Baldwin certainly has the skills to supplant Breaston as a starter on the outside, plus Breaston has the versatility to play inside. Baldwin’s a big receiver with deceptive speed, a wide catch radius, and good ball skills, which is why we think he could become a Vincent Jackson-like player, and if that happens, it could make Bowe expendable, if he decides not to return after playing on a franchise tender in 2012. While having Cassel under center might limit the passing game somewhat, Baldwin needs to prove he can stay focused and develop into a reliable option, which would give the Chiefs a potentially dangerous offense. He’s a great example of why we do this article each year, especially since Baldwin has the tools to be an elite player down the road.

 

• 8/11 update: With Dwayne Bowe still holding out, Baldwin and Steve Breaston have been running with the starters in KC. Chief coach Romeo Crennel expressed optimism regarding Baldwin, in particular, noting that the youngster has lost weight. He’s been lighting it up on camp thus far, so he’s clearly moving up in the world, and he’s performed well enough that some observers have considered him the Chiefs’ best offensive player thus far in camp. He’s moving up our draft boards – remember, some around the NFL thought he was the most gifted receiver in last year’s draft, after A.J. Green.

Vincent Brown (SD, 82^nd pick overall) – Leg injuries in the preseason limited Brown out of the gate as a rookie, causing him to miss the first two games of 2011. He played the rest of the way, but he finished with just 19/329/2 on 40 targets. It was a shaky season for the entire Charger passing game, starting with QB Philip Rivers, but we expect them to get back on track in 2012, even though WR Vincent Jackson has departed. That should open the door for Brown to see the field more, although we should note that they still have Malcom Floyd and added Robert Meachem, who may have been a victim of playing on a team with a ton of talent in New Orleans, causing him to get lost in the mix. While Brown’s best bet for production is probably in the slot, he can play on the outside too, and that versatility along with his years’ worth of experience should allow him to take a step forward this year. There were a few flashes of brilliance from him as a rookie, too, so we view Brown as a legit break-out candidate provided he actually gets the chance to collect a healthy number of targets.

 

• 8/11 update: We've heard mixed reviews on Brown in training camp thus far. Brown has been shaky and has been making mistakes, but apparently QB Philip Rivers has been more comfortable throwing to him than to new acquisition Robert Meachem. According to the North County Times, Rivers and Meachem are having “chemistry issues,” which has led Rivers to lean more on Brown and Malcom Floyd. It's uncertain what Brown's role will be when the season kicks off, so this is a situation to monitor throughout the preseason. Brown could be as high as the #2 WR here, and as low as the #4, depending on the health of Meachem and Eddie Royal. Brown certainly helped himself by having a big game in the preseason opener, albeit against the backups.

Have a chance:

 

Randall Cobb has huge upside at some point here, and while it's a very crowded group of receivers, we may still see something of an emergence in 2012.

Randall Cobb (GB, 64^th pick overall) – Cobb made his presence known about as quickly as any rookie could by returning a kick 108 yards for a TD and taking a pass 32 yards for a TD on opening night against the Saints. That was certainly the high point of his season, though, as he wasn’t really relevant for fantasy the rest of the way. In fact, on his TD catch, he ran the wrong route, so it’s not a surprise that he wasn’t on the fantasy radar. He was the sixth option in an incredibly deep passing game, which means his 24/369/1 on 30 targets (80%) wasn’t actually bad. We know Cobb has the potential to be an extremely effective jack-of-all-trades player, moving around the formation and frequently working out of the slot, but the question is how long before he gets that chance? Green Bay has a great 1-2 punch at WR in Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, plus it re-signed the always dangerous TE Jermichael Finley and veteran WR Donald Driver. While James Jones may not have a consistent role, he’ll probably remain ahead of Cobb on the depth chart. Cobb’s flashy play may earn him some extra snaps this season, but he may be another year – or an injury – away from getting a significant opportunity to showcase his abilities. Don’t forget that it took Nelson 2-3 years before he was truly relevant in this offense. But in terms of talent and potential and potency of the offense he’s in, Cobb is absolutely someone to watch this year. 

 

• 8/11 update: In training camp thus far, he’s impressed enough to move past veteran Donald Driver for snaps from the slot, and it’s led to speculation that the Packers would be willing to part with WR James Jones before the season. He’s someone to monitor throughout the preseason, because if he becomes the Packers’ #4 option in the receiving game, he’ll have a chance to put up numbers (remember he also returns kicks, for those who get credit for that in their scoring systems).

Leonard Hankerson (Was, 79^th pick overall) – Coming out of Miami last year, we saw Hankerson as a player with a decent skill set, but nothing that jumped off the page. He has straight-line speed, but doesn’t play that fast. However, he’s versatile, which is important for a team that still has Santana Moss and added Pierre Garcon. In limited action last season (4 games), he totaled 13/163/0 on 18 targets. He didn’t see time until Week Seven, but then went down with a hip injury in Week Ten, which would end his season. It’s a good sign for Hankerson that the team moved Niles Paul to TE, but with the talent they already have in the receiving corps, it could come down to Hankerson battling Josh Morgan for a starting job on the outside opposite Garcon. If that doesn’t happen, he could be fighting for time in the slot with Moss, assuming that’s where Moss plays. In short, while having Robert Griffin III under center is certainly an improvement, the opportunities may not be there for Hankerson just yet. He at least now has a year under his belt in the NFL and in the offense, which helps. 

 

• 8/11 update: Hankerson has been one of the more consistent receivers so far in camp, according to the Washington Post. Hankerson is angling to get a role in the offense ahead of WR Josh Morgan, who has struggled in camp with hamstring issues, and has a long injury history beyond that. There’s a chance Hankerson starts opposite Pierre Garcon at some point this year. He started over a banged up Morgan in the preseason opener, so he might be ahead of Moss.

Jeremy Kerley (NYJ, 153^rd pick overall) – As an undersized but shifty and quick slot receiver, Kerley had a limited role in the Jets’ limited and vanilla passing offense last year. Although he was the team’s primary slot receiver, his numbers weren’t good enough to consider for fantasy, as he ended up with 29/314/1 on 46 targets in 14 games. He’s expected to continue that role this year in an offense that may be even more flat with OC Tony Sparano taking over. The team doesn’t have much at WR outside of Santonio Holmes and rookie Stephen Hill, so Kerley should see more of a consistent role, at least in terms of playing time in the slot. Mark Sanchez could sure use a reliable option underneath besides the underutilized TE Dustin Keller, which would be a nice role for Kerley to fill, so expect 40+ grabs from him in Year Two.

 

• 8/11 update: Kerley (hamstring) will not play in the team's preseason opener on Friday, according to the New York Daily News. Kerley has had problems picking up the offense and has plummeted down the depth chart since the start of camp, while rookie WR Jordan White has had an impressive camp thus far, according to ESPN New York. White projects best as a slot receiver, so his strong practices are coming at a good time.

Lestar Jean (Hou, undrafted) – Jean was a guy we really liked last season – our own Adam Caplan watched him in person at Texans camp and came away impressed with his size and body control. The Texans have struggled to add receiving depth behind Andre Johnson over the last few years, and they could really use a player like Jean with a 6’3” frame to provide insurance given Andre’s extensive injury history. We’re still going into 2012 blind on Jean in game situations, as he landed on IR last summer with a shoulder injury, but he has been impressive this off-season so far. He’s competing with Kevin Walter and two rookies in DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin for snaps, but the fact remains that Jean’s skillset makes him the best fit to “back up” Andre in the event of another injury. When Andre missed time earlier in training camp with a groin injury, it became evident that Jean was the guy to fill in. He’s someone worth watching, especially for Andre owners in deeper leagues.

 

• 8/11 update: Added 8/9.

Cecil Shorts (Jac, 114^th pick overall) – Shorts was part of arguably the worst receiving corps in the league last year and ended up playing in just 10 games, catching 2/30/1 on 10 targets. Even with a lack of talent at the position, Shorts wasn’t able to see much of the field, although we doubt he would have been able to put up decent numbers with Blaine Gabbert under center. Shorts came from a small college, Division III actually, so he would have been covered more prominently in this article, in his second season. But the Jaguars addressed their WR needs with the signing of Laurent Robinson and the selection of Justin Blackmon in this year’s draft. That moves Mike Thomas back into the slot and pushes everyone else, including Shorts, down the depth chart. He’s a one-speed receiver with reliable hands, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be getting many chances barring injuries in front of him.

 

• 8/11 update: Jaguar WR Mike Thomas has had a poor camp and could well have dropped behind Shorts on the depth chart, according to the Florida Times-Union. With rookie Justin Blackmon just having signed, Shorts has been running with the first-team offense at flanker. He’ll eventually move behind Blackmon, but he has looked better than Thomas, although Thomas made some plays in the opener. Shorts, though, did score in the first game, so he’s doing some good things.

Jerrel Jernigan (NYG, 83^rd pick overall) – Jernigan saw just 17 snaps as a rookie, but may get a chance for more in 2012. The departure of WR Mario Manningham leaves a spot open for the team’s #3 WR and possibly more, depending on the recovery of Hakeem Nicks. While Jernigan is in the mix, he’ll be battling rookie Rueben Randle (the current favorite), as well as Domenik Hixon and Ramses Barden. He doesn’t have much size, which should limit him to a slot role, but he’s quick, runs good routes, and is a reliable pass-catcher. In fact, GM Jerry Reese told us at the combine that he’s likely in the mix in the slot, so when Cruz is playing outside (or if he has to play outside), Jernigan could see the field this year. If he is playing inside, QB Eli Manning has turned those types of players into meaningful parts of the offense in recent years, so we’ll just have to see if Jernigan gets his chance.

 

• 8/11 update: Jernigan has shown a lot of positive traits in training camp thus far. According to USA Today, Jernigan has flashed his vertical speed and sure hands, and he's a candidate for the #3 WR spot in addition to return roles. WR Rueben Randle has drawn the most buzz, and Domenik Hixon started higher on the depth chart, but Jernigan has made perhaps the biggest impressions of the three thus far.

Tandon Doss (Bal, 123^rd pick overall) – Doss was a nonfactor in his rookie season and saw action in just five games, thanks to a double sports hernia surgery he underwent after his final season in college. That pushed Torrey Smith up the depth chart and into a starting role, where he’s expected to remain in 2012. Doss now finds himself in a battle for depth chart positioning after the signing of Jacoby Jones and selection of Tommy Streeter in this year’s draft, and Doss also missed some time in OTAs (he will be ready for training camp). His versatility allowed him to line up at all three receiving spots during the off-season, although he probably projects best in the slot long-term. We’ve heard positive reports on increased speed, which would make sense since he’s finally healthy, but it looks to be an uphill battle for Doss in 2012. Then again, Jones and Streeter are hardly players to count on, so Doss could get a chance, since he now has experience in the offense.

 

• 8/11 update: Doss reportedly had a very strong spring, but he hasn’t been able to carry that over into training camp. He’s battled a hamstring injury and has missed a good portion of camp, and he’s fallen well behind Jacoby Jones in the battle for the club’s #3 WR job.

Greg Salas (Stl, 112^th pick overall) – The Rams were looking for help in their receiving corps and took Salas and Austin Pettis in last year’s draft, but neither player had particularly memorable rookie seasons. Salas ended up with just 27/264 on 37 targets (4.5 FPG), but he was limited to just six games, thanks to a broken fibula. He was back on the field for OTAs and appears to have put the injury behind him. We’ll see what kind of impact he can make it a crowded, but not necessarily talented, Ram receiving corps that already features Danny Amendola, Danario Alexander, Steven Smith, Brandon Gibson, Austin Pettis, and rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens. Salas’ potential is probably as a slot receiver, but that’s Amendola’s job unless he goes down again. If he does, Smith could then be the slot guy, but at least Salas has a year’s worth of experience now. Of course, this is a new offense under new (and shaky) offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.

 

• 8/11 update: Salas is getting opportunities in training camp, according to the Rams’ official website. Salas has been moved from the slot to the outside. Salas missed the end of last season with a broken leg suffered in Week Ten, but he's making quick impressions on his new HC Jeff Fisher. For now, he appears ahead of Austin Pettis on the feeding chart.

Dwayne Harris (Dal, 176^th pick overall) – Harris had a monster preseason with the Cowboys last year (6/138/2), but his struggles to pick up the playbook meant he eventually landed on the team’s practice squad and eventually on the active roster, where he played in seven games and didn’t record a catch. But with Laurent Robinson gone, the speedy Harris will have a chance to compete with Kevin Ogletree and rookie Danny Coale for the Cowboys’ #3 WR role, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see him emerge as someone who is getting meaningful snaps for the Cowboy. If he does, note that this is a big-number passing offense, and there’s production to be had.

 

• 8/11 update: Harris has emerged as one of the favoritse in the #3 WR job for the Cowboys, according to ESPN Dallas. He has moved past Andre Holmes as Holmes has had trouble with his hands in camp, and rookie Danny Coale is still raw after just coming off the PUP list this week.

Austin Pettis (Stl, 78^th pick overall) – The Rams added Pettis to a receiving corps that lacked talent and didn’t get any better in 2011. He appeared in 12 games and finished with 27/256 on 47 targets (57.4%) with an average of just 2.1 FPG, but he had knee issues and finished his season on a sour note by getting suspended four games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing substances. He’ll miss the first two games of the 2012 season and has slipped down the depth chart with the additions of rookie WRs Brian Quick and Chris Givens plus veteran Steven Smith. Danny Amendola, Danario Alexander, Brandon Gibson, and fellow second-year man Greg Salas will also be in the mix of a group looking for someone to step up. Pettis has good size at 6’3”, 207 pounds, so at least he has that going for him, since he can play inside or outside (most likely). He can make plays in traffic, but he isn’t much of a route runner and doesn’t get downfield. QB Sam Bradford will be looking for reliable targets, but the jury’s still out as to whether or not Pettis will become one of those players.

 

• 8/11 update: Pettis is not guaranteed a final roster spot, according to the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Pettis is also suspended the first two games of this season, as part of a four-game suspension levied late last year. Pettis appears to be the sixth man on the depth chart at this point, but he can return punts, which helps his chances of making the team.

Clyde Gates (Mia, 111^th pick overall) – The Dolphins took Gates last season, appearing to understand he’d be more of a project player behind guys like Brandon Marshall, Brian Hartline, and Davone Bess, so it wasn’t surprising to see him put up just 2/19 on 12 targets in 15 games. Now, Marshall is gone and the team added Chad Ochocinco and Legedu Naanee, but Gates looks like he’ll be buried on the depth chart due to his struggles to pick up the team’s new West Coast scheme. It doesn’t help that we’re seeing a three-man race at QB among Matt Moore, David Garrard, and rookie Ryan Tannehill. Gates is considered a great athlete who can make plays downfield, but he’ll need to develop more to play a meaningful role in 2012.

 

• 8/11 update: He’s also not guaranteed a roster spot.

Well, they still are second-year receivers:

 

Stephen Burton (Min, 236^th pick overall) – Burton bounced on and off the team’s active roster last season, appearing in just three games before landing on the IR in early December with an MCL sprain after catching just 2/38 on the year. However, he’s bounced back quite nicely and drew praise from HC Leslie Frazier in OTAs for his confidence and athletic ability. He got a chance to work with the first-team offense with Percy Harvin missing some time, but he will still battle for a roster spot in training camp. The Vikings drafted WRs Greg Childs and Jarius Wright, who are both expected to make the team, and added a veteran in Jerome Simpson this off-season, so it looks like Burton will have to beat out Devin Aromashodu for a spot on the team.

 

• 8/11 update: Burton has flashed at times in both OTAs and training camp, and his chances of making the Vikings’ final roster perhaps increased given the serious knee injury suffered by rookie Greg Childs in camp. Burton is raw, but he has size, and he potentially has some opportunity given the situation.

Ryan Whalen (Cin, 167^th pick overall) – Whalen had just 4 catches for 27 yards in four games as a rookie and may not even make the final roster when the team opens up the season in 2012. There’s lots of talent in front of him on the depth chart, and he doesn’t stand out at all as anything more than a smart possession receiver. However, while there is “a lot of talent” ahead of him, there’s very little in terms of experience, so Whalen should get a chance to compete for 2012 snaps

 

Kris Durham (Sea, 107^th pick overall) – Durham was limited to just 3/30 in three games last season before landing on the IR with a torn labrum in his shoulder. He underwent successful surgery and was back on the field for OTAs. He’s a solid all-around receiver, but he does nothing to get you excited. That seems to fit in with a Seahawk receiving corps that hasn’t shown us much. Doug Baldwin looks like the team’s most reliable option, although they are hoping Sidney Rice can return to top form after undergoing surgery on both shoulders. After that, you’re looking at a group that includes Golden Tate, Ben Obomanu, and Michael Williams, plus TEs Zach Miller and Kellen Winslow. We don’t see much coming from Durham unless he makes great strides in training camp, but we wouldn’t give him a 0% chance to do something in his second season.

 

Kealoha Pilares (Car, 132^nd pick overall) – Pilares played in 12 games as rookie, but didn’t contribute anything on offense. Instead he was the team’s primary kick returner for most of the season, but had ankle issues that stemmed from an injury in the preseason. He’s buried on the depth chart and probably won’t be making a move up, at least not a significant one to consider him a fantasy option.

 

Second-Year TEs

 

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

None of note.

 

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Kyle Rudolph (Min, 43^rd pick overall) – Rudolph didn’t put up huge numbers as a rookie, but he showed enough to convince us he can be a major player in the future here. In 14 games, Rudolph went for 26/249/3 on 39 targets (66.7%), averaging only 3.1 FPG but convincing the Vikings that he should be a big part of their offense moving forward. A kink was thrown into those plans when the team gave a surprising, sizeable deal to TE John Carlson, but the move is not a deal-breaker for Rudolph. Carlson has done well in the past and could be on the field just enough to limit Rudolph from truly breaking out, but he’s also been a non-factor in recent years with the Seahawks, so he’s no lock. Clearly, the team is expected to use more two-TE sets this season. The good news is this team doesn’t have much at WR besides Percy Harvin and (maybe) Jerome Simpson, so Rudolph will probably be needed to step up if this offense is going to show improvement in 2012. Rudolph is a mountain of a man, and we loved some of the flashes he showed as a threat down the seam in the passing game, and especially in the red zone. If the opportunities increase like we think they will – we’re told the team really likes him a lot – he has a chance to be a very useful fantasy option with a year’s worth of experience on his pro resume.

 

One player we're high on in Minnesota is Kyle Rudolph, and the Vikings are expecting big things in his second season.

• 8/11 update: Rudolph has looked like a top option for the Vikings thus far in camp. HC Leslie Frazier said Rudolph has “a chance to be special,” according to ESPN.com. Frazier said Rudolph has a large catching radius, and QB Christian Ponder said he's confident throwing to Rudolph even if he's barely open. OC Bill Musgrave has said Rudolph had a great off-season, and he should at least be incredibly active as Ponder’s safety valve. Rudolph’s emergence has been particularly significant, given the knee sprain that’s already keeping the oft-injured John Carlson off the field.

Rob Housler (Ari, 69^th pick overall) – The Cardinals appeared to take Housler to be the TE of the future and exactly not the present, which was apparent when they signed veteran TE Todd Heap. Even though Heap struggled with injuries yet again, Housler didn’t get many chances, grabbing just 12/133 on 26 targets in 12 games. In addition to be limited by a groin injury, Housler didn’t get much help from a shaky QB situation and his inability to block kept him off the field more than we’d hoped. Housler moves like a WR, even though he’s 6’6’’, and he should be able to create mismatches, which might allow him to develop into a solid red-zone threat. Heap is still around and, if healthy, should be atop the depth chart to start the season. But if you’re looking for some upside, Housler is your guy. We are happy to hear that the team expects to use TEs more as part of the passing game this season and is already talking about using more two-TE sets. Also, keep in mind that Kevin Kolb missed him open running down the seam on two different occasions, and both plays could have been scores. Had Kolb not missed him, the Housler narrative this off-season would have been a lot more positive. Everyone should be better off with a full off-season here, and Housler’s year of experience could show in 2012. In fact, we recently spoke with Darren Urban of the team’s official website, and when we asked him about Housler, he told us he’s his pick for the Cardinals’ offensive break-out player this year. We like him a lot, too, so we were happy to get some confirmation from someone dialed into the team.

 

• 8/11 update: Housler caught 3 passes for 51 yards in Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game and looked really good in the process. Housler started the game along with TE Todd Heap, as the team came out in a 2-TE set. Housler had a chance at a long TD, but wasn’t seen wide open down the field. He looked impressive, which should boost his value as a very interesting late-round pick. In fact, Cardinal HC Ken Whisenhunt is in love with Housler, according to Sports Illustrated's Peter King. Whisenhunt has been impressed with Housler's speed and hands, which leads King to believe Housler could be Arizona's second passing option behind WR Larry Fitzgerald.

Lance Kendricks (Stl, 47^th pick overall) – We were intrigued with the Rams’ selection of Kendricks in last year’s draft, and based on what we saw in the preseason, there was reason to believe he and Sam Bradford might be developing a rapport rather quickly. However, the hype machine did get a little out of control last summer, and we really didn’t buy it. Unfortunately for him, Kendricks failed to become a consistent playmaker and finished with 28/352 on 58 targets (48.3%), which was good for just 2.3 FPG. While Bradford’s ankle issues certainly didn’t help matters, Kendricks had some big drops that overshadowed the times he did flash. While his athleticism is somewhat limited, we still think he could be a move TE and line up anywhere in the formation. There’s no doubt he struggled with the speed of the NFL game, which just added to the miserable season this team had from a passing standpoint. This offense doesn’t have much in terms of proven, reliable receivers, so if Kendricks can show to be a solid option for Bradford, he might be worth keeping an eye on to see if he’s worth picking up. We’re not big fans of new OC Brian Schottenheimer, but his offenses do typically get the TEs involved, so Kendricks has a chance on the receiver-poor Rams.

 

• 8/11 update: Kendricks has had major problems with drops in training camp, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and he’s also missed some practices with a minor injury. Early this summer, we heard the Rams might feature Kendricks extensively in their offense, as he certainly has the ability to be a big piece here, but he has to learn how to catch the football.

Have a chance:

 

Jordan Cameron (Cle, 102^nd pick overall) – Even as part of one of the weakest receiving corps in the league, Cameron wasn’t able to stand out as a rookie. He played in just eight games, finishing with 6/33. The former college basketball player has flashed in OTAs and HC Pat Shurmur hasn’t been shy in saying that he believes Cameron could make an impact in his second season. With veteran Ben Watson in the final year of his deal and Evan Moore still not showing much, despite having lots of potential, Cameron could get more chances. It’ll certainly help to have a better QB in Brandon Weeden under center, and it will certainly help that he has a year in the league and in this system on his resume.

 

• 8/11 update: Cameron has been taking advantage of Evan Moore's absence and is making a strong push for the #2 job behind Ben Watson, according to the News-Herald. Cameron has much more upside than Watson, and if the Browns are serious about getting younger, it wouldn't be a shock if he's starting at some point this year. The Browns will enter Week One with Watson as their starter, according to coach Pat Shurmur, but Cameron has already made enough noise to be listed at #2 on the team’s official depth chart.

David Ausberry (Oak, 241^st pick overall) – Ausberry was limited to mostly special teams duty in 12 games as a rookie and caught just 2 balls for 14 yards on the season. His role already looks to be changing for 2012, as he’s spent time working with the first-team offense after putting on 20 pounds in the off-season. HC Dennis Allen believes Ausberry, a former wide receiver who runs well, can be an every-down TE and it looks like the team is building toward that idea for the future. That may not mean much for Ausberry this year, but considering his competition at the position includes Brandon Myers and Richard Gordon, it wouldn’t surprise us to see Ausberry finish as the top receiver at the position, although that won’t necessarily translate to fantasy relevance. But in terms of the ideal role, Ausberry definitely has an excellent chance to be the receiving option at this position, even if Myers is technically the “starter.” We don’t know if that will translate to much, but he’s on the radar in his second season. 

 

• 8/11 update: Raider TE Brandon Myers is the team's “starter” at the position, coach Dennis Allen told CSN Bay Area. Myers isn't expected to be much of a fantasy option, however – he's a better blocker than Ausberry, a former WR. But the Raiders are still impressed with Ausberry’s conversion to TE, given that he didn’t even have an off-season last season. He’s a much more gifted pass-catcher than anyone else at his position on this team.

Well, they still are second-year receivers:

 

Julius Thomas (Den, 129^th pick overall) – Thomas was getting some nice reviews for his work in training camp as a rookie, but an ankle sprain suffered in Week Two kept him out until Week Eight and ended up costing him more time as he tried to play through it. He ended up with a single catch for 5 yards in his four games and would undergo surgery in April to repair ligament damage. He’s expected to be ready for training camp, but he now finds himself buried on a depth chart, thanks to the additions of Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen, plus fellow second-year TE Virgil Green. Thomas is an unrefined athlete who flashes impeccable receiving skills, but he’s far from a finished product and his development has already been hindered. He still has a lot of work to do, so don’t expect much out of him in 2012.

 

• 8/11 update: Thomas recovered from off-season ankle surgery in time to report for training camp. He’s still #3 on the depth chart, however.

Luke Stocker (TB, 104^th pick overall) – Playing behind Kellen Winslow as a rookie, Stocker had a limited role in the passing game, grabbing just 12/92 on the season in 14 games. When the Bucs released Winslow earlier in the off-season, it looked like GM Mark Dominik was serious when he called Stocker an every-down TE, yet that was somewhat undermined by the signing of Dallas Clark. While Clark is certainly past his prime, we still expect him to play a bigger role in the passing game than Stocker, who’s expected to be used as an in-line blocker, with the team having more of a focus on the run. Stocker may end up being a productive NFL player, but his role as a fantasy option probably won’t be a useful one unless Clark goes down, which, of course, he has the last two seasons.

 

• 8/11 update: He did start for Clark in the preseason opener, for what it’s worth (which is very little). Clark so far has been fine in camp.

D.J. Williams (GB, 141^st pick overall) – With a stacked receiving corps, including TE Jermichael Finley, it wasn’t surprising to see Williams limited to just 2/13 in 14 games as a rookie. With Andrew Quarless possibly not coming back from a torn ACL and MCL in 2012, Williams should enter the season third on the depth chart behind Finley and the affable Tom Crabtree. While not considered much of a blocker, Williams has shown great downfield speed and athleticism, which might sound similar to Finley, although Williams isn’t anywhere near as talented. He’s a nice project player for the Packers, but he won’t be making any waves as a fantasy option, if he even makes the team. Of course, Finley isn’t exactly an iron man. If he’s out, then Williams might have a chance to be relevant.

 

• 8/11 update: It’s not much, but apparently Williams has turned some heads with an impressive training camp thus far, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. We don’t like to work in hyperbole, but the paper said that Williams might look more impressive than anyone on the roster, which is high praise. We’ll see if the Packers might try to incorporate him in some two-TE sets this preseason.

Niles Paul (Was, 155^th pick overall) – The Redskins drafted Paul to play WR, but as a rookie, he managed just 2/25 in 13 games. In April, with a surplus of WRs on the roster, they moved him to TE, where he’s expected to remain going forward. Paul has added about 10-15 pounds to get up to 235, but lacks the ideal size at 6’1’’ to play TE. So far, he’s been happy with the transition, but has had trouble with blocking, as you might expect. He’s still third on the depth chart behind Fred Davis and Chris Cooley, although Cooley isn’t a lock to make the team. Paul can’t be considered to be fantasy relevant in his first year learning a new position.

 

Virgil Green (Den, 204^th pick overall) – The Broncos took a flier on Green late in last year’s draft, and although he played in 15 games, he managed just 3/24. Green was suspended for the first four games of 2012 for violating the league’s banned-substance policy, although he’s since obtained an exemption for the substance and will be allowed to take it going forward. Green won’t appeal the suspension, and that keeps him buried on the depth with the additions of TEs Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen plus fellow second-year TE Julius Thomas, who should be ready for training camp after undergoing ankle surgery in April. If given the chance to develop, Green could become a reliable pass-catcher, but don’t expect him to be relevant for fantasy in 2012.

 

Lee Smith (Buf, 159^th pick overall) – Smith was originally drafted by the Patriots, but he ended up being cut at the end of the preseason and was claimed by the Bills. He ended up appearing in 10 games and had just 4/11 before landing on the IR with an ankle injury in mid-December. Smith might be second on the depth chart behind Scott Chandler, but he’s considered to be a blocking specialist and has limitations athletically, according to HC Chan Gailey. He’s not relevant for fantasy football.

 

Richard Gordon (Oak, 181^st pick overall) – The Raiders drafted Gordon to play FB/TE and, despite suffering a broken hand, he still played in 14 games, but he had just a single catch for 2 yards. He looks to be third on the team’s depth chart heading into this season behind David Ausberry and Brandon Myers, and he isn’t expected to play much of a role as a receiver. Instead, look for him to be utilized as a blocker, specifically in the backfield.

 

Third-Year WRs

 

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

 

Victor Cruz (NYG, undrafted) – Cruz was so under-the-radar last year that he wasn’t even listed in this article, since he had never even spent time on an active roster prior to 2011. Well, he showed exactly where a break-out receiver can come from: out of nowhere. He caught 83 of 130 targets (63.8%) for an incredible 1545 yards and 9 TDs, making the Giants forget easily that Steven Smith skipped town to Philadelphia (where he was a bust). Obviously, Cruz set the Giants’ single-season record for receiving yards in a season, so it’s hard to expect him to replicate his dream season. But he can play outside and dominate in the slot, he has great chemistry with Eli Manning, and a full off-season with a confirmed role is only going to help him get better. Heck, at this point, with his experience, we’d be perfectly fine if it enabled him to maintain his high level of play. That’s really the key to Cruz: Can his experience now help him come close to what he did last year?

 

• 8/11 update: Cruz has been working outside a lot this camp along with rookie WR Rueben Randle with Hakeem Nicks currently out, according Mike Garafolo of The Star-Ledger. WR Jerrel Jernigan has been working primarily out of the slot, but Cruz has taken snaps inside as well. Playing outside might not be great for Cruz’s fantasy value, but we'll see where they use Cruz once Nicks is back.

Dez Bryant (Dal, 24^th pick overall) – Categorizing Bryant for this article was a tough task. While it’s obvious that he’s gifted and he does show it, his consistency really has not been one of his strong suits through two years (we’ve dubbed him “Mr. Individual Play”). So we are listing him as “broken out,” with the note that he’s talented enough to break out even more. When it comes to pure talent, Bryant might be top-three in the entire NFL, but as close as he might be at times, he’s still far from an elite receiver. In 15 games, Bryant went for 65/928/9 receiving on 102 targets (63.7%), which certainly aren’t poor numbers. But his 9.8 FPG ranked him 20^th at the WR position, about 6-8 spots lower than he was actually being drafted. Bryant is a very physical player, which leads to nagging ailments, and perhaps the biggest concern was his odd tendency to disappear for long stretches of action. And speaking of injuries, he needs to learn to play hurt, which is different than being injured. We’ve come to expect unreal flashes, and they always get us excited. But the key for him will be continuing to play at a high level moving forward. This off-season, Bryant has acknowledged his need to step up, especially in the absence of Laurent Robinson. And for what it’s worth, QB Tony Romo has praised his third-year receiver for his strong off-season and willingness to improve. It’s a start, but Bryant has no doubt been frustrating because his raw talent sets the bar very high. If he doesn’t show us the best he has to offer in 2012, we’re going to have to question whether he ever will.

 

• 8/11 update: It’s been a busy off-season for Bryant. The good news: his mother doesn't want to press charges against her son for his alleged domestic violence incident, according to the Associated Press. The DeSoto, Texas, police filed the incident as a Class A misdemeanor family violence charge, and the case likely won't move forward without the cooperation of Bryant's mother. Still, Bryant continues to make us question his dedication to the game, and reports suggest that Cowboy owner Jerry Jones is livid with his youngster’s conduct. However, on the field, Jones has been raving about Bryant’s performance, important considering Miles Austin continues to have hamstring issues. Of course, Jones was praising him before Bryant himself landed on the injury report with a hammy issue himself, although it’s probably not as serious as Austin’s.

Antonio Brown (Pit, 195^th pick overall) – Last season at this time, Brown was listed in the “have a chance” section of this article because we hadn’t seen much of him. But the Steelers saw enough in practices and off-season camps to make Brown one of their key offensive cogs, and he had a fantastic second season in the NFL, making us wonder if he might actually be the “#1” here for Ben Roethlisberger over Mike Wallace. While he’s not as explosive as Wallace, Brown has some deep speed, and he’s better route runner. Facing a fair amount of single coverage, Brown averaged 13.9 FPG in the second half of the season, finishing the year with 69/1108/2 (16.1 YPC) on 121 targets (57.0%). From Week Seven on, Brown averaged 15 PPG in a PPR league, which ranked him 13^th in the format at WR (Wallace was 26^th, despite doubling Brown’s TD total). He has good hands and can create after the catch, which is fantastic news because he should remain productive even if he doesn’t catch a high number of balls. If he improves his catch rate, we should see Brown’s numbers go up, especially since there’s one fewer mouth to feed with Hines Ward retiring. It’s possible he hit his ceiling in 2011; if not, and if he brings it with another year in the pros, we believe he can be a special player.

 

• 8/11 update: We've had this feeling since watching them on tape last year, but SI's Peter King confirmed it for us: King's source within the Steeler organization said the team believes Brown is a better player than Mike Wallace, which Brown’s recent five-year extension with the club would seem to indicate. And with Wallace still not reporting for camp, Brown has been the favored receiver for QB Ben Roethlisberger. That’s no surprise, but there is a question of whether Brown can be as effective without Wallace to take the top off the defense. It’s probably a moot point, though, since Wallace will eventually report, but there’s a chance this becomes somewhat of a DeSean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin situation here.

Mike Williams (TB, 101^st pick overall) – Like Dez Bryant, Williams was particularly difficult to categorize for this article. Last year, he was our only second-year WR to be listed in this category, and the question is: If a guy is already broken out, can he “break back in”? If that’s possible, Williams did it last year, as did the entirety of the Bucs’ offense (including QB Josh Freeman). Williams started all 16 games and put up 65/771/3 (11.9 YPC) on 124 targets, for a miserable 52.4% catch rate and ended up just 55^th among WRs with 6 FPG. Perhaps it was an issue we should have foreseen – in his great 2010 season, Williams was buoyed by 11 TDs, but his catch rate was actually worse than it was in 2011. Williams got down on himself for his play and promised to improve, which we think will come in time. Now, he’s probably much better cast as a high-end #2 WR, which he will be with Vincent Jackson on board with a megadeal. Perhaps the new offense under Greg Schiano helps Williams relax and become the strong red-zone threat we know he can be, in which case, he’ll be closer to the “broken out” we thought he was last year. But ultimately, we see him as a volume receiver, and we don’t see a lot of volume, since this will be a run-based offense and a passing game that will go through Jackson.

 

• 8/11 update: By all accounts, Williams is having a very solid camp, even if he isn’t standing out. He’s done enough thus far to be listed as the Bucs’ #2 WR behind Vincent Jackson on the team’s official depth chart, and there doesn’t appear to be anyone seriously challenging him for that spot.

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Eric Decker (Den, 87^th pick overall) – With Kyle Orton at QB last year, Decker looked to be on his way to a breakout. From Week One through Week Nine, he ranked tied for 19^th at the WR position, with 9.6 FPG on 33/406/6 receiving with 59 targets (55.9%). And he looked great doing it. But with Demaryius Thomas returning from injury and Tim Tebow taking over under center, Decker’s production took a huge hit. In Weeks Eleven through Seventeen, Decker caught just 33% of his targets. As the offense became more Tebow-centric, Decker became irrelevant, except for a couple of big plays. Don’t expect that to be the case with Peyton Manning throwing the football. Not only is Decker fully recovered from the MCL sprain he suffered during the postseason, but he’s also been spending a good portion of his off-season working out with Manning to build chemistry. Thomas might be the more talented of the two receivers, but Peyton has always been one to value chemistry and comfort level. If he has that with Decker, who is clearly a better route-runner and inside receiver than Thomas, we could be looking at a great fantasy combination here. Like Thomas, Decker’s two years of NFL experience should serve him well as he enjoys playing with a living legend at QB.

 

• 8/11 update: Decker has established great chemistry with QB Peyton Manning early in camp, according to the Denver Post. Decker appears to be running sharp routes, which has put him visibly ahead of Demaryius Thomas on Manning's food chain thus far. He’s clearly developed the best chemistry with Manning, and a minor groin injury that kept Decker out of a few practices is nothing to worry about, so continue moving forward with him as a strong value, especially if he looks great in the preseason.

Demaryius Thomas was considered raw as a route runner coming out of college, so it's good that he at least now has two years experience in the pros.

Demaryius Thomas (Den, 22^nd pick overall) – There’s no doubt Thomas is unbelievably gifted, and it’s a shame that injuries have derailed him a bit thus far in his career because it’s at least becoming evident why Josh McDaniels might have found him more appealing than Dez Bryant in the 2010 NFL Draft. Thomas, recovering from a torn Achilles and a finger injury, debuted in Week Seven, and in 11 games, he posted 31/551/4 on 67 targets (47.8%, more Tim Tebow’s fault than Thomas’), which ranked him only 41^st at the WR position. But most of that production came in the last five weeks of the season – 25/448/3 on 45 targets (55.6%), enough to rank him 10^th at the WR position, with 12.7 FPG over that span. Now, Peyton Manning takes over, and he has a big, fast, athletic receiver who can effectively run ISO routes (ask the Pittsburgh Steelers, who got burned for 204 yards and an overtime TD in the Wild Card round of the playoffs). In fact, we’re wondering if Peyton has ever had a receiver this big, physical, and naturally gifted. At the least, Thomas should help Peyton extend his career as a productive fantasy player, and Peyton could help Thomas break away from that awful target conversion rate with Tebow. If Thomas stays healthy, he could put up some huge numbers, given his raw talent, and with two years in the league he should be able to better take advantage of playing with quite possibly the best QB in league history.

 

• 8/11 update: Bronco QB Peyton Manning has been raving about Thomas, according to the Denver Post. According to Manning, Thomas' skillset means he does things “other players just can't do,” and what's interesting is that Manning himself has never played with a receiver with Thomas' size-speed combo. If Manning is healthy, Thomas and Eric Decker could potentially be the NFL's next great WR duo. It’s also good news that the recent Achilles tightness that sidelined Thomas was nothing to worry about.

Brandon LaFell (Car, 78^th pick overall) – It’s a big year for LaFell, who has been totally adequate in his NFL career thus far but not much more than that. In 2011, with the best rookie QB in NFL history in Cam Newton, LaFell posted 36/613/3 on 56 targets, good enough for only 5.3 FPG. In reality, despite Newton’s efforts, the Panthers had only one serious fantasy option at WR in Steve Smith, and both TEs Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey were mediocre for fantasy. This off-season, the Panthers “lost” Legedu Naanee to free agency and added only rookie slot WR Joe Adams in the draft. And head coach Ron Rivera has told reporters that LaFell has had a stellar off-season thus far and is the unquestioned #2 WR here alongside Smith (he could see a late push from David Gettis, coming off a torn ACL). We like to think of LaFell as a lowercase Dwayne Bowe, and in that regard, he’d be a heck of a #2 receiver. If Newton can maintain his high level of play from his rookie season, LaFell could be a major beneficiary. He’s had two years in a league and a full season and now off-season in this offense and with Newton, so it’s time. 

 

• 8/11 update: Despite the recent acquisition of Louis Murphy, LaFell is still running as the starter opposite Steve Smith and appears unchallenged for the job. They are very happy with his camp and expect him to be a rock solid #2 for their offense this year.

Jacoby Ford (Oak, 108^th pick overall) – We know Ford has only 44 career catches in two seasons, but his absolutely explosive speed has caught our eyes since he’s come into the league. We’re hoping in 2012 he can stay healthy and truly provide a dynamic weapon for QB Carson Palmer. Right now, Ford is still slated as the #3 WR (behind Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore), but he’ll also return kicks, and his ridiculous speed makes him dangerous, both after the catch and in the open field. In ways, we like him better than DHB, but Ford has to prove he can stay on the field and withstand the rigors of a full-season with a major role. Hamstring and foot injuries cost him half of the 2011 season, although he was reportedly 100% recovered as far back as April. The issue with Ford is that he hasn’t seen a whole lot of action in off-season camps; the coaching staff appears to be struggling to find a role for him. If he can’t improve his play in the slot, he might be out of luck. But if he shows that his explosive speed can’t be kept off the field, he could have a big year.

 

• 8/11 update: Ford was a little buried on the depth chart early in camp, but following the trade of Louis Murphy to Carolina, he looks to be at worst the #3 guy here. He has to stay healthy to hold off impressive rookies Rod Streater and Juron Criner, but he should have his shot here, as he’s coming on lately. If Moore is out, Ford is the guy and has a chance.

Emmanuel Sanders (Pit, 82^nd pick overall) – Sanders was taken 113 picks earlier than teammate Antonio Brown in 2010, but Brown has become the Steelers’ true break-out star, while Sanders has been more of a player who has flashed at times and disappointed others. In 2011, Sanders posted 22/288/2 on 43 targets in 11 games and missed time after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery in November. If he’s healthy (he’s already called himself “100%” after recovering from an off-season knee procedure), he could emerge next year as a reliable underneath option. That’s something the Steelers need in the absence of Hines Ward, and Sanders gives the added bonus of offering major upside after the catch, and he’s actually a little faster than Brown. Sanders has also expressed his love for new coordinator Todd Haley’s offense, citing the increase in play-action routes that he feels fit his skillset better. Brown looks like an emerging star, but Sanders is still young, and if he can make his impact as a third receiver and on returns, he could have some fantasy value to boot – especially if Mike Wallace holds out deep into August and since Wallace even when he reports will be behind the 8-ball in terms of picking up the new offense.

 

• 8/11 update: Sanders (knee, foot) is healthy but has been given extra rest in camp despite Mike Wallace's holdout because of some durability issues in the past, coach Mike Tomlin told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Sanders has still been taking most of the first-team reps with Wallace out, and he scored in the preseason opener.

Have a chance:

 

Damian Williams (Ten, 77^th pick overall) – The Titans actually had a generally productive receiving corps last year; it’s amazing what a solid QB in Matt Hasselbeck will do for a team. Williams was part of it. While he’s really nothing more than just a solid “guy,” he was a nice complement for this group – a role he could play when Kenny Britt returns in 2012. In 15 games, Williams had 45/592/5 (13.2 YPC) on 84 targets (62.7% caught) and was tied for 58^th at the WR position with 5.9 FPG. The unfortunate thing for Williams’ upside is that Britt is back and the club also drafted Kendall Wright in the first round of April’s draft. Throw them in with Nate Washington, and Williams is probably #4 on this depth chart. The Tennessean reported that Williams is learning to play inside and out in OC Chris Palmer’s offense, meaning he’s probably the top backup on this club for all positions, but Palmer’s suggestion that Williams will probably see more time on special teams isn’t really a good sign for his fantasy upside unless someone gets hurt. Of course, Britt’s far from a lock, and Williams specifically played Britt’s position last year, so it’s not like Williams should be forgotten.

 

• 8/11 update: Williams received some first-team reps in camp before Kendall Wright reported, but now he’s back to being the #3 WR. That’s OK with Williams, who feels like his versatility makes him an ideal receiver to come off the bench. For now, it appears he’s holding off the troubled Kenny Britt and the rookie Wright.

Andre Roberts (Ari, 88^th pick overall) – Roberts was technically the “starter” opposite Larry Fitzgerald last season, which might surprise many fantasy owners given how few leagues he was owned in. But quietly, Roberts played pretty well down the stretch. Overall, Roberts had 51/586/2 receiving on 98 targets (52.0%). But through Week Eight, he might as well have not even been on the roster – he had just 13/133/0 on 31 targets over that span. But from Week Nine on, he had 38/453/2 on 67 targets, and ranked a respectable 47^th at the WR position with 6.7 FPG. Roberts’ finish to the season has coaches confident in his abilities, according to someone we spoke with from the Cardinals’ official website, and there’s a chance his performance was strong enough that he can hold off rookie Michael Floyd as the starter while Floyd learns the ropes. But make no mistake, when Floyd enters the game, Roberts will likely move to the slot, and he’s a better fit there anyway. The bad news in that instance is that the Cardinals brought back Early Doucet, who isn’t a bad slot receiver in his own right. The window of opportunity is open for only so long for most NFL players, and if Roberts doesn’t continue to progress in his third season, it may not be open for him much longer.

 

• 8/11 update: Roberts is expected to open the season as the #2 receiver opposite WR Larry Fitzgerald, according to Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. Rookie WR Michael Floyd could have a tough time surpassing Roberts and Early Doucet any time soon. Roberts started the Hall of Fame Game, while Floyd played exclusively with the second team, and that was the case in their second preseason game.

Golden Tate (Sea, 60^th pick overall) – The Seahawks hosted a gaggle of mediocrity at the WR position all season, and for most of the season, that didn’t even include Tate. Through Week Twelve, Tate caught only 16 passes in 11 games, but finished the year with 19 receptions in his last five. Tate had only 35/382/3 on 58 targets overall (60.3%), but at least he finished strong. Unfortunately, his size (5’10”, 202) seems to suggest he’d fit better in the slot, but he isn’t as sudden an athlete as you might expect. So he’s seemingly better suited outside the numbers, where he has to compete for snaps with Sidney Rice, Michael Williams, and Ben Obomanu. Fortunately for Tate, Rice is always hurt, and the other two guys don’t exactly have his upside, so he has a chance. Remember, he caught nearly 4 passes a game over the last five weeks of the season, which projects to 61 receptions over 16 games. They also seemed to be inclined to get him the ball in the red zone and inside the 10 last year He caught only 2 TDs, but he had as many red zone targets (7) as guys like Jordy Nelson and Brandon Marshall the final six weeks of the season. It’s a start.

 

• 8/11 update: Tate is having a good camp, but a team official isn't confident in the 3^rd-year receiver, according to Pro Football Weekly. The team “insider” said, “Just when you're ready to anoint him, Tate backslides.” Still, with Sidney Rice's slow recovery from shoulder surgery, Tate looks like he could start with the newly signed Terrell Owens in Week One.

David Nelson (Buf, undrafted) – Nelson has no real special traits outside of his 6’5” frame, but that’s good enough to make him a preferred target for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Additionally, that size makes him an appealing slot target, where he spent most of his time last season en route to catching 61 passes. Expect Nelson to continue playing most of his snaps inside in multi-receiver sets, which coach Chan Gailey use a ton. The Bills hope to stay healthier at WR this year, but Nelson should have his job in the slot pretty secured. He can excel in short yardage and in the red zone, which should continue to give him nice fantasy value as a bench option.

 

• 8/11 update: Nelson (leg strain) returned to practice this week but will miss the team's preseason opener, according to the Buffalo News. He’s missed most of training camp thus far, while guys like Naaman Roosevelt and Derek Hagan have looked strong in camp.

Marcus Easley hasn't played a single snap in the regular season, but he's at least been in Buffalo for two full years and is heading into his third.

Marcus Easley (Buf, 107^th pick overall) – The Bills made a huge splash in free agency on the defensive side of the ball, but despite overtures to Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham, they didn’t acquire a WR. While front-office quotes after the fact do seem like PR spin, the fact remains that the Bills have been saying positive things about Easley, who has missed the entirety of both of his NFL seasons – 2010 with an ACL tear and 2011 with a heart condition. But the club is looking for a starter opposite Steve Johnson, and Easley has seen some work with the first team in minicamps. In fact, the team’s official website suggests his size (6’2”, 221) and long speed makes him the ideal option if he’s healthy, over Donald Jones, David Nelson, and rookie T.J. Graham. Don’t be surprised if Easley comes out of nowhere to make an impact this season because, as we’ve said for two years now, he might be their most talented receiver, given his nice combination of size and speed. Keep in mind he flashed serious potential in the preseason last year, and the Bills love size at receiver, yet they are also starving for more speed. Easley hasn’t sniffed the field yet, but he’s at least been with the team and offense for two years now and this is year three, so it’s not like the system and personnel is foreign to him.

 

• 8/11 update: Easley has had a good  camp thus far and could push Donald Jones for a starting job, according to the team's official website, although he’s not there yet. This is good news for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who lacked a viable deep threat last year, and might have two of them this year if rookie T.J. Graham continues to flash.

Jordan Shipley (Cin, 84^th pick overall) – After tearing his ACL just two games into the 2011 season, Shipley at least had a long off-season to recover and was cleared for OTAs in May. But Shipley admitted in the middle of June to the Cincinnati Enquirer that he still feels pain and “stiffness” in his surgically repaired left knee, which is cause for concern given how long his recovery has been to this point. We hope to see Shipley get healthy sooner rather than later because his game in the slot is a great fit for QB Andy Dalton, but if he isn’t healthy he could lose those reps to the fairly impressive (and much healthier) Andrew Hawkins. The Bengals seem to be looking at Hawkins outside these days, but he can absolutely play the slot if Shipley has issues.

 

• 8/11 update: Shipley (ACL) came off the PUP list early in camp but still has an uphill climb to unseat Andrew Hawkins for the permanent slot job.

Donald Jones (Buf, undrafted) – Last season, Jones was the Bills’ only receiving threat with some deep speed, but unfortunately foot and ankle problems limited him to eight games and 23/231/1 receiving. Still, coach Chan Gailey, a fan of multi-receiver sets, called Jones the Bills’ favorite for the #2 WR job in June, according to the team’s official website. The Bills are also working on Jones’ versatility, using him in the slot in minicamps, where he can be used to attack the seams. His grip on a job is not secure however, and he’ll face competition for snaps from David Nelson, Derek Hagan, and rookie T.J. Graham. That’s in addition to Marcus Easley, who may be the biggest threat to Jones for the long-term this year. The advantage Jones has, however, is that only Graham can clearly offer a better vertical threat than Jones, and he’s just a rookie and likely a rotational player at best. Jones also has an edge based on his experience. We’re really interested in seeing what Easley can do, but Jones cannot be discounted at all.

 

• 8/11 update: Jones opened training camp as the starting “Z” receiver for the Bills, but he’s the guy who Marcus Easley and T.J. Graham are keying on for a starting job. There’s a bulls eye on Jones’ chest.

Danario Alexander (Stl, undrafted) – Alexander might be one of the most talented WRs listed here, but major injury issues have plagued him since college. The deep threat has played 18 games in two years with the Rams, catching 46 passes for 737 yards and 3 TDs, but his knees and, most recently, hamstrings have betrayed him. Under a new coaching staff, Alexander got off to a rough start, missing some OTA practices with hamstring problems, not a good sign because he’ll have to beat out one or several among Brandon Gibson, Greg Salas, Steven Smith, and Austin Pettis for a roster spot. He has the talent to catch on somewhere else even if he doesn’t win a spot with the Rams, but he’ll always come with a major injury red flag. We’re afraid, at this point, that Alexander will go down in fantasy lore as only a tease.

 

• 8/11 update: Ram HC Jeff Fisher said Alexander (hamstring) is still struggling with injuries during camp, as he’s been on and off the field. Alexander isn't guaranteed a roster spot.

Dezmon Briscoe (Was, 191^st pick overall) – It’s weird that a player battling for a roster spot didn’t report to voluntary camps in the off-season, but that’s what happened with Briscoe, as he battled through some relationship issues with the new regime. Can he endear himself to new coach Greg Schiano if he isn’t present? The big and physical Briscoe was back for mandatory camps in June, but he was running with the third-team offense. Can he build on a strong 2011 in which he grabbed 35 passes for 387 yards and a team-high 6 TDs? It’ll be tough, in that he’s clearly behind Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams on the depth chart and has to prove he’s a better option than Arrelious Benn, as well (the Bucs have been running Preston Parker and Sammie Stroughter with the second team, and Parker should get the nod over Briscoe in the slot). It’s an uphill climb for Briscoe, but his size is an asset to QB Josh Freeman, and this guy can definitely play.

 

• 8/11 update: Briscoe had an interesting off-season, missing spring minicamps with a personal issue, which got him cut from the Bucs’ roster. But he provides an interesting size option for the Redskins, who claimed him and have completely retooled their WR corps this off-season.

David Gettis (Car, 198^th pick overall) – Gettis, a late pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, showed some real promise in his rookie season, catching 37/508/3, despite horrendous QB play. Unfortunately, a torn ACL last August denied him the opportunity to play with QB Cam Newton last year. Gettis is reportedly close to 100% already, and even though he will likely play 2012 with a knee brace, according to the Associated Press, he’s going to have a shot to be the Panthers’ #3 WR. With his size (6’3”, 217 pounds) he projects best to the perimeter, and his frame could be an appealing target for Newton. He also moves fairly well and can get downfield, so he’s definitely intriguing. The Panthers could use some size at the position, and he provides it.

 

• 8/11 update: Gettis (hamstring) has yet to practice in training camp, which has put him well behind Brandon LaFell, Seyi Ajirotutu, and Louis Murphy in a competition for snaps, according to the Charlotte Observer.

Well, they still are third-year receivers:

 

Arrelious Benn (TB, 39^th pick overall) – Benn’s had a rough go of it so far in his NFL career. He has dealt with injuries, hasn’t lived up to his high second-round draft status, and is now tasked with having to impress a new coaching staff led by Greg Schiano. Benn was able to start the 2011 season, despite tearing his ACL at the end of 2010, but he was mostly a disappointment with just 30/441/3 on 50 targets (60% caught) to finish with 4.4 FPG. He’s another year removed from the injury, but now he’ll have to compete with Vincent Jackson, Mike Williams, Preston Parker, Dezmon Briscoe,and Sammie Stroughter for snaps. In off-season camps, Benn has been working with the third-team offense, so he has an uphill climb, for sure.

 

• 8/11 update: Benn can’t catch a break. He was expected to compete for a job, but he’s missed almost all of camp and is expected to miss about three more weeks with a sprained MCL.

Riley Cooper (Phi, 159^th overall) – Cooper is an interesting talent for the Eagles because he offers something really no one else on their roster does: size (he’s 6’3”, 222). But in limited action in 2011, he caught 16/315/1 on 34 targets, a poor conversion ratio, and he made errors with his hands and his brain. We’ve liked what we’ve seen from Cooper as a potential long strider and red-zone threat, but he has to prove he’s a better option for the Eagles’ #4 WR role than rookie Marvin McNutt, who can do some of the same things. And McNutt, according to the Philadelphia Daily News, is off to a good start in minicamps, especially in the hands department. Riley does still have the edge, and he did show some chemistry with QB Michael Vick.

 

• 8/11 update: Cooper fractured his left collarbone trying to haul in a deep pass from QB Michael Vick during an early camp practice, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Cooper underwent surgery and is expected to miss six weeks, which makes Cooper shaky Week One. Rookie WR Marvin McNutt is positioned to see more snaps as the #4 WR.

Kerry Meier (Atl, 165^th pick overall) – Meier was recovering from a torn ACL last season (he did play in 12 games in a limited role), and he’s now two years (and zero career catches) removed from the injury. His 6’3” frame and special team versatility are both major assets to his chances to make the roster, but his overall lack of impact thus far is a big argument against him. He has an uphill climb, but outside of their top two guys the Falcons aren’t particularly deep at WR. Keep in mind that, before Meier’s injury, and before Julio Jones was brought in, Meier was in the mix to actually win a starting job – or at least significant playing time – here.

 

• 8/11 update: Meier looks like the favorite to back up both Roddy White and Julio Jones this year, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Meier has apparently had a very strong camp, which would add some depth to a WR corps that looks pretty thin after the top two guys here.

Carlton Mitchell (Cle, 177^th pick overall) – As a 6’3”, 215-pound specimen, we’ve seen Mitchell look potentially special before. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated into NFL successes, as he has just 3 receptions in his two-year NFL career. But there is opportunity here. The Browns have a new QB in Brandon Weeden, and they haven’t really upgraded their receiving corps outside of drafting slot man Travis Benjamin. ESPN Cleveland noted how good Mitchell looked during OTAs, and it’s at least good to see that Mitchell understands this is probably his last chance here. Coach Pat Shurmur and the Browns are probably just waiting for someone to step up and seize a job, so why not Mitchell? The Browns do want to add some juice to their receiving corps, and Mitchell has some of it. In his third season, if he doesn’t do something now, he could be out of the league before long.

 

• 8/11 update: Mitchell looks like a tough bet to make the Browns’ roster following the addition of young WR Josh Gordon in the supplemental draft.

Armanti Edwards (Car, 89^th pick overall) – Edwards is a third-year WR with no career catches, a third-year return man with no returns of longer than 17 yards, and a third-year wildcat QB with 2 career pass attempts. It goes without saying that he’s an extreme longshot to make this roster, given that the Panthers spent a fourth-round pick this year on the similar (and hopefully better) Joe Adams.

 

• 8/11 update: Edwards has had a great camp, according to head coach Ron Rivera, but he’s still going to have to battle for a roster spot during the preseason.

Taylor Price (Jac, 90^th pick overall) – Drafted by the Patriots in 2010, Price hasn’t lived up to his potential as a deep threat WR, catching only 5 passes in two seasons. Although a player with his talent would be presumed to have a shot to make the roster of the receiver-starved Jags, the club added Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson this off-season, and Price spent a good deal of the off-season in a walking boot as he recovered from foot surgery. He has an uphill climb to make the Jags’ roster, but the club does like his talent, and if he can stay healthy, he could surprise.

 

Mardy Gilyard (Phi, 99^th pick overall) – Gilyard is another college superstar, like Armanti Edwards, who has yet to live up to his potential. Released by the Rams last year, Gilyard has an outside shot to make the Eagles’ roster as a return specialist. To do that, he’ll have to outpace RB Dion Lewis and rookie CB Brandon Boykin, which remains an uphill climb. But it is worth noting that the Eagles have struggled in the return game of late, so they’re looking for any spark they can get. But don’t expect Gilyard, who has 6 career catches, to contribute much as a receiver.

 

• 8/11 update: He did score on a nice catch in the preseason, so he might make the team if he keeps that up.

David Reed (Bal, 156^th pick overall) – Reed, a return specialist, has no career catches in two seasons and struggled at times with ball security last year. Then, he tore his ACL in December, and is no guarantee to be 100% by training camp (though he says he will be). Not only that, but the Ravens signed WR Jacoby Jones this off-season, someone who can help the return game. Reed is no guarantee to make the roster, and it might actually be a small surprise if he does.

 

• 8/11 update: Reed (ACL) is likely to miss the entire preseason, according to the Baltimore Sun. His roster space is in jeopardy.

Kyle Williams (SF, 206^th pick overall) – Williams has 20 catches last season, but he’ll forever be remembered for his embarrassing special teams performance in the NFC Championship Game, which is absolutely the #1 reason the 49ers didn’t have a Lombardi Trophy parade in February (despite what the team says publicly). And if you need any further confirmation the team wants nothing to do with him, note that it signed both Mario Manningham and Randy Moss in free agency and drafted A.J. Jenkins in the first round in April’s draft. Williams is behind at least four guys on the WR depth chart, and is behind Ted Ginn as a return man. His roster spot is in jeopardy, as it should be.

 

Terrence Austin (Was, 219^th pick overall) – Good luck to Austin trying to make this roster. He has 15 career catches, and he’s now behind Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Leonard Hankerson, Josh Morgan, Anthony Armstrong, and potentially return man Brandon Banks on the Redskins’ WR depth chart. Austin has no skills to separate himself from the pack, so he really has to impress in camp to make this roster.

 

Marc Mariani (Ten, 222^nd pick overall) – Mariani is in an interesting spot on this list, as he’s almost guaranteed a roster spot, but he doesn’t provide much in the way of fantasy value to players. He has only 5 career catches, but he is an explosive and elusive return specialist. His numbers were down last season as a return man, but Mariani admitted to The Tennessean last month that he was bothered by a high ankle sprain he suffered in the preseason. If he’s healthy, owners in return-yardage leagues could expect a bump in production, perhaps in line with his Pro Bowl 2010 campaign.

 

Brandon Banks (Was, undrafted) – At 155 pounds, Banks is the lightest player in the NFL, which hasn’t hurt him as a return specialist. But last month coach Mike Shanahan told Banks that he’d have to make an impact as a WR to make the Redskins’ all-of-a-sudden competitive roster, according to the Washington Examiner. For a guy with 3 career catches who weighs less than the average person reading this, that’s certainly a challenge.

 

• 8/11 update: Banks is having a strong camp and is making his case to be included on the roster, according to the Washington Examiner. But he’s still going to have to contribute in preseason games to earn his keep.

Third-Year TEs

Already broken out but even more experience helps:

 

Jimmy Graham (NO, 95^th pick overall) – Graham was our #1 TE on the “Legit Breakout Candidates” list last season, and boy did he come through. In fact, he came through with such a bang that there’s a legitimate “Graham or Gronk” debate going on, despite Rob Gronkowski’s historic 2011 season. In his first full season of football as a starter ever, Graham had no problems with his increased role, racking up 99/1310/11 (13.2 YPC) on 148 targets (66.9% caught), which gave him 12.3 FPG, ranking him 2^nd among TEs and 7^thamong all receivers. Graham had only four 100-yard games, all in a row between Weeks Three and Six, but he caught at least 4 passes in every game, scored at least 1 TD in nine separate games, and scored multiple TDs twice. What makes him perhaps a more appealing fantasy pick in 2012? His performance seems a little bit easier to repeat than does Gronk’s, and he also doesn’t have an Aaron Hernandez pecking at his feet for targets at the position. But whichever guy you prefer, note that Graham is an exceptional talent who could actually get better, which is what’s so scary. As long as Drew Brees is back in town, look for Graham to continue his run at superstardom.

 

• 8/11 update: Graham was just fine after coming up with some back pain suffered while making an acrobatic catch during Wednesday's practice, according to The Advocate. Graham appears to have just come down a little funny making a spectacular catch.

Rob Gronkowski (NE, 42^nd pick overall) – Gronk was the only TE in this article listed under “already broken out” last season, but it’s hard to take what he did last year and not call it a break-out season. In fact, it was historic. Gronkowski had 90/1327/17 on 124 targets (72.6% catch rate) and averaged 15.1 FPG, which made him the second best receiver (WR or TE) in the league, trailing only Calvin Johnson. He led the league in receiving TDs and finished 6^th in receiving yards and tied for 3^rd, with 26 targets in the red zone. Note that Gronkowski scored multiple TDs in seven different games – only five other TEs had 7 TDs total. During the season, coach Bill Belichick has said that Gronk has the chance to be the best TE ever, and Belichick really isn’t one to embellish. The only downside is that it’s impossible to expect Gronkowski to put up that kind of absurd numbers again in 2012, but he’s as “broken out” as broken out gets. He’s a superstar, and now he’s under contract for a long time.

 

• 8/11 update: It should be no surprise, but ESPN Boston has reported that Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain appears to have healed fully, which should mean owners have no qualms about going after him early in drafts.

Aaron Hernandez (NE, 113^th pick overall) – Overshadowed quite a bit by beastly teammate Rob Gronkowski, Hernandez is still a fantastic option for QB Tom Brady and for fantasy teams. And although Gronk’s presence certainly limits his upside, we wonder if he might still be a fantasy value because the “#2 TE” stigma is hard to shake. That’s certainly understandable, but the numbers are hard to ignore – Hernandez put up 79/910/7 on 113 targets (69.9%) and finished 3^rd among TEs with an average of 9.8 FPG. Hernandez still has to work out some of the mental kinks in his game, as he’s currently more suited to beat man coverage than zone, but he’s a dynamic athlete who is a TEINO (tight end in name only). He plays like a WR, runs like a WR, lines up like a WR, but has the size of a TE. The Patriots have even used him straight up as a running back at times (he had 61 yards rushing against the Broncos in the postseason). The point is, he’s too good to be denied the football, and even as a “#2 TE” he has more fantasy upside than some of the guys being taken in front of him. In this third year, we’d have to expect his game to become even more polished, which should give him a better chance to at least equal his 2011 production, even though there are a ton of mouths to feed here.

 

• 8/11 update: Hernandez worked with QB Tom Brady late after practice last week, working on taking handoffs for running plays, according to ESPN Boston. Hernandez started to get some work as a tailback late last year, including leading the club with 5/61 rushing against the Broncos in the postseason last year. If Hernandez gets even one or two carries here and there, it'll boost his fantasy value in ways his TE colleagues won't boost their own.

Legit breakout candidates:

 

Jermaine Gresham (Cin, 21^st overall) – We like Gresham a lot, but he’s in a tough spot when it comes to living up to expectations – he was taken long before Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Aaron Hernandez in the 2010 NFL Draft. A few nagging injuries, combined with struggles to pick up the playbook, have really hurt his chances to make a true, big-time impact thus far in his career. In 2011, he wasn’t great, putting up 56/596/6 on 91 targets to average 6.8 FPG, but he made some plays in the red zone and had a couple of nice games to end the regular season. What’re missing are the bigger plays, as Gresham has yet to become a true playmaker at the TE position, and most of his contributions have come on shorter patterns. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden told the Bengals’ official website that Gresham has to do a better job of running dynamic routes; that is, he has to understand coverages better after the ball is snapped. But if Gresham does that, there is a legit chance he can put up numbers with improving second-year QB Andy Dalton. There’s an opening here for a legitimate #2 passing target behind A.J. Green, and Gresham has the ability to lock down that role if he can shore up his faults. We asked head coach Marvin Lewis about him at the combine, and Lewis told us that last year they taught him “what” in the new offense, and this year they’re going to teach him “how.” Unless the playbook continues to baffle him, there is a good chance his production jumps in his third season. We’re not sure about the big plays, but his catch total should rise.

It's Year Three for Jermaine Gresham, and the time for him to step up is now.

 

• 8/11 update: Gresham has had a strong camp and could well be the #2 passing option behind superstar WR A.J. Green, according to the team's official website. The Bengal coaching staff has been singing Gresham's praises publicly, and it appears the club is expecting Gresham to have somewhat of a breakout campaign. That would make him, by definition, a great fit for this article.

Tony Moeaki (KC, 93^rd pick overall) – We loved Moeaki coming out of Iowa in 2010, and his torn ACL that cost him the entirety of the 2011 season was a big blow to the Chiefs’ offense. And there were some red flags raised this off-season when Moeaki didn’t participate fully in OTAs, instead just running and lifting on the side. But according to the Kansas City Star, Moeaki intends to be ready for training camp and to assume the role as the Chiefs’ #1 TE by Week One. Moeaki has natural receiving skills and great hands, plus he backed up his reputation as a great blocker. While he doesn’t have great size, his athleticism allows him to move around the formation. We doubt Moeaki will ever truly command the ball, but he can be effective in the intermediate area. The Chiefs brought in Kevin Boss for insurance and they also have some intriguing young WRs, but Moeaki could be a guy who can catch between 50-60 balls in a good year for QB Matt Cassel. However, we’re just not sold on his health and his ability to put up big numbers on a team that has a ton of weapons and probably not a ton of production to go around.

 

• 8/11 update: Moeaki (ACL) was cleared for camp and played in the team’s preseason opener on Friday.

Have a chance:

 

Ed Dickson (Bal, 70^th pick overall) – Dickson has been frustrating for both fantasy players and the Ravens. He’s produced on occasion, but inconsistently, and he’s had every opportunity to make an impact with a club that has needed reliable targets for QB Joe Flacco. Dickson has great vertical speed down the seams, but he’s been a liability as a blocker, and he has not picked up the playbook anywhere near as well as the team would have liked. As such, that vertical speed hasn’t translated into big-time numbers – Dickson finished with 54/528/5 on 88 targets in 2011, an average of 9.8 YPC, and his targets sharply declined at the end of the season – he posted 14 targets in Week Ten alone, and then had only 21 combined over the last seven games. But because fellow third-year TE Dennis Pitta has also been a disappointment, Dickson is expected to enter training camp as the Ravens’ #1 TE, according to the Ravens’ official website. As gifted as he is, however, he’ll have to show something tangible pretty soon. If it’s not happening in Year Three, it may never happen for him, so this is a big year for Dickson.

 

• 8/11 update: Dickson will be the Ravens’ first-team TE ahead of the injured Dennis Pitta, according to the Baltimore Sun. He’s had a solid camp, but has not stood out one way or another and he’ll missed 1-2 weeks with an injury.

Dennis Pitta (Bal, 114^th overall) – We’ve always preferred teammate Ed Dickson to Pitta, but we’re willing to admit it’s because he’s simply more athletic. Down the stretch in 2011, Pitta was actually the more productive player. While Pitta’s 10.1 YPC was below average, his 71% catch rate was above average, and both marks were better than Dickson’s. Pitta also was more efficient in the red zone, scoring 3 TDs on 6 targets to Dickson’s 5 TDs on 13. Pitta is probably the more “well-rounded” TE, and if for some reason he were to get significant snaps, he has the skillset to put overall a solid year together. He also seems to click pretty well with QB Joe Flacco, who is one of his best friends on the team. But he’s still struggled with consistency, and in this instance having two TEs means the Ravens really have no TE you value for fantasy. OC Cam Cameron told the team’s official website that both Dickson and Pitta are ready to break out, but which one will get the shot?

 

• 8/11 update: Pitta required surgery on a broken hand and could be in jeopardy for Week One, according to the Baltimore Sun. The injury has pushed him clearly behind Ed Dickson on the team’s depth chart.

Clay Harbor (Phi, 125^th pick overall) – The backup to Brent Celek, the balanced Harbor has made 22 grabs for 235 yards and 2 TDs in two NFL seasons. He’s not a great athlete, but he’s certainly capable of putting up the occasional numbers as a #2 TE and could fill in admirably in the event Celek (who played hurt all of last season) goes down. But also remember that it took QB Michael Vick a long time to recognize that Celek was even on the field, so don’t expect huge results for Harbor unless he’s filling in for an injury. But if the Eagles go two-tight, he’ll be the guy getting snaps.

 

• 8/11 update: Harbor is having a solid camp, but it’s not exactly the greatest sign for the team’s confidence in him that the Eagles openly flirted with Visanthe Shiancoe before he signed with the Patriots. For now, Harbor is still the #2 here.

Michael Hoomanawanui (Stl, 132^nd pick overall) – Hoomanawanui has an uphill climb in 2012, as he’s recovering from a torn ACL suffered last November. But fortunately for him, 2011 rookie Lance Kendricks didn’t make the impact we had hoped, and Hoomanawanui’s balanced skill set could help him see snaps in 2012 if he impresses in training camp (for which he’s expected to be ready). It’s tough not to question Hoomanawanui after he missed eight games in his rookie season due to an ankle injury and then another eight last year, thanks to an early-season calf injury and torn ACL, and he has only 20 career catches. But from what we’ve seen of him, he’s shown a nice ability to adjust his size to the ball and he’s found gaps in coverage.

 

• 8/11 update: Hoomanawanui (ACL) was cleared for training camp on time and has been practicing in full.

Well, they still are third-year receivers:

 

Fendi Onobun (Buf, 170^th pick overall) – Onobun has more career teams (five) than catches (two), but that doesn’t mean he’s not talented. In fact, Bill TE coach Pete Metzelaars told the team’s official website that Onobun, a former basketball player at the University of Arizona, is “an untapped talent.” Onobun might not have developed as quickly as Jimmy Graham, but don’t rule out the possibility that he becomes an intriguing back-up option at TE to the more traditional Scott Chandler if he can hone his skills in training camp.

 

Garrett Graham (Hou, 118^th pick overall) – A 2010 fourth-round pick, Graham has only one career catch in two seasons, but he’s been buried on a depth chart that included Owen Daniels, Joel Dreessen, and occasionally James Casey (who also plays FB/H-back). Now, with Dreessen gone, Graham has a chance to make an impact in 2012. Like Daniels, Graham was a good receiver at Wisconsin, but he’s more of a well-rounded type of TE who projects well as a #2. But frankly, we haven’t really seen a lot of the guy, although we might have to soon, given Daniels’ injury history.

 

Andrew Quarless (GB, 154^th pick overall) – Don’t expect much from the talented Quarless in 2012, if ever again. After suffering a brutal knee injury on special teams in December of last year, there’s a fear Quarless will miss all of 2012, and perhaps might lose the rest of his career. At the least, expect the ACL and MCL injuries to land him on the PUP to start the season. The Packers have no shortage of TEs behind Quarless either, with Tom Crabtree, Ryan Taylor, and D.J. Williams in the mix to back up Jermichael Finley.

 

Brody Eldridge (Stl, 162^nd pick overall) – Eldridge, waived by the Colts in May, was already facing a battle with Matthew Mulligan to be the Rams’ #3 TE behind Lance Kendricks and Michael Hoomanawanui. Eldridge’s job got a lot harder now that he has been suspended four games for violating the league’s PED policy. He’s a blocking specialist as is, so listing him in this article is pretty much strictly for completion’s sake.

 

Nate Byham (SF, 182^nd pick overall) – Byham has 27 career receiving yards, but that’s about all that was expected of him by this point – a sixth-rounder in 2010, he was considered a high-end blocking specialist but little more. An ACL suffered last August has set him back, but he’s expected to be fully ready for training camp, when he will compete for the #3 TE job in San Francisco. He just won’t do much for fantasy.

 

Anthony McCoy (Sea, 185^th pick overall) – McCoy was one of the more physically gifted TEs in the 2010 draft, but he was raw. His college coach, Pete Carroll, took a gamble on him, but despite some flashes in the 2011 season (13 catches, 146 yards), it appears unlikely McCoy is going to contribute on this club, given that it signed Zach Miller to big money last season and just traded for Kellen Winslow. McCoy could see some action in the event of an injury (and neither Miller nor Winslow is the most durable guy), but there’s a lot standing in his way.

 

Mickey Shuler (Min, 214^th pick overall) – Shuler has only two career receptions and is the #3 TE in Minnesota, but it’s important to list him here because the Vikings clearly want to employ a two-TE strategy in 2012 with Kyle Rudolph and John Carlson. Rudolph has major injury issues in his last year at Notre Dame, and Carlson missed all of 2011 with a shoulder injury, so neither guy is exactly Tony Gonzalez when it comes to durability. In the event of an injury, Shuler could surprise in some deeper leagues by making a few grabs.

 

Jim Dray (Ari, 233^rd pick overall) – As of publication, Dray is probably #4 on the Cardinals’ TE depth chart behind veterans Todd Heap and Jeff King and the supremely talented second-year guy Rob Housler. But Dray, at 6’5” and 255 pounds, has a balanced skill set that has impressed coaches, and it’s entirely possible that a strong training camp on his part could convince the Cards to part ways with one of their two veterans (Heap struggled majorly with injuries last season).